Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Nurmagomedov's perfect 100% win rate and dominant common opponent performances make him a heavy favorite. He's 4-0 against shared opponents while Bautista is 1-3, including Umar decisioning Sandhagen while Bautista was submitted. Umar's 100% takedown defense and 3.98 takedowns per fight will dominate the grappling. His superior striking defense (63% vs 54%) and better accuracy (63% vs 47%) give him edges everywhere.

Umar Nurmagomedov holds a clear statistical edge in striking defense, accuracy, and grappling effectiveness. His 100% takedown defense nullifies Bautista's wrestling threat, and Umar's superior strike differential and accuracy, combined with his ability to control pace and distance, make him the likely winner over three rounds. Bautista's higher output and submission attempts are countered by Umar's defensive efficiency and proven success against higher-level competition.