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Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern

Women's Strawweight · Main card · UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane

FINAL: Mackenzie Dern by U-DEC
Virna Jandiroba
Virna Jandiroba
Age 37 · Elo 1591
WWWWW
196 days since last fight
vs
Mackenzie Dern
Mackenzie Dern
Age 32 · Elo 1604
WWLLW
286 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Virna JandirobaMackenzie Dern
Claude Claude: Virna Jandiroba 78% Claude: Mackenzie Dern 22% 78% 22% GPT GPT: Virna Jandiroba 68% GPT: Mackenzie Dern 32% 68% 32% Elo Elo: Virna Jandiroba 48% Elo: Mackenzie Dern 52% 48% 52%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Virna JandirobaMackenzie Dern
Strikes landed / min Virna Jandiroba Strikes landed / min: 2.12 2.12 Mackenzie Dern Strikes landed / min: 3.47 3.47 Strikes absorbed / min Virna Jandiroba Strikes absorbed / min: 2.73 2.73 Mackenzie Dern Strikes absorbed / min: 3.93 3.93 Striking accuracy Virna Jandiroba Striking accuracy: 38% 38% Mackenzie Dern Striking accuracy: 41% 41% Striking defense Virna Jandiroba Striking defense: 57% 57% Mackenzie Dern Striking defense: 51% 51% Takedowns / 15 min Virna Jandiroba Takedowns / 15 min: 2.29 2.29 Mackenzie Dern Takedowns / 15 min: 0.93 0.93 Takedown defense Virna Jandiroba Takedown defense: 73% 73% Mackenzie Dern Takedown defense: 37% 37% Sub attempts / 15 min Virna Jandiroba Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.7 1.7 Mackenzie Dern Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.1 1.1

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 5% Claude: Submission 35% 35% Claude: Decision 60% 60%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 5% GPT: Submission 20% 20% GPT: Decision 75% 75%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Virna Jandiroba by Decision, 78% confidence

Jandiroba's superior common opponent record (6-1 vs Dern's 2-5) reveals a significant skill gap. She submitted Amanda Lemos three times while Dern lost to her. Jandiroba's 73% takedown defense vs Dern's 30% is crucial in this grappling matchup. While both are submission specialists, Jandiroba's better striking defense (57% vs 51%) and superior cardio from her 5-fight win streak should control position and win rounds.

GPT
Virna Jandiroba by Decision, 68% confidence

Jandiroba holds a clear edge in grappling control and takedown defense, while Dern struggles to secure takedowns (16% accuracy) and often absorbs more strikes than she lands. Jandiroba's superior defensive metrics (57% striking defense, 73% takedown defense) and her track record against common opponents suggest she can neutralize Dern's submission threat and control the fight positionally. Both are elite grapplers, but Jandiroba's more well-rounded skill set and better fight IQ should lead her to a competitive decision win.