Ludovit Klein vs Mateusz Rebecki
Lightweight · Prelims · UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Who wins, by source
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
Klein's exceptional recent form (5-0 streak) and superior takedown defense (91% vs 33%) give him clear advantages. His 6-inch reach advantage will be crucial in maintaining distance against Rebecki's aggressive style. Klein's defensive wrestling and striking accuracy create a stylistic nightmare for Rebecki, who relies heavily on takedowns (4.12 per fight) that Klein can stuff.
Rebecki's high takedown volume (4.12 per fight) and 75% accuracy, paired with a strong submission threat (1.0 sub avg), give him a clear grappling edge over Klein. Klein's 91% takedown defense will be tested rigorously, but Rebecki's pace and volume, both standing and on the mat, should allow him to control rounds. Klein's superior striking accuracy and significant reach advantage (6 inches) give him upset potential, but Rebecki's pressure and ability to mix in takedowns are likely to sway the scorecards.