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Ludovit Klein vs Mateusz Rebecki

Lightweight · Prelims · UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane

FINAL: Ludovit Klein by M-DEC
Ludovit Klein
Ludovit Klein
Age 30 · Elo 1559
LWWWW
147 days since last fight
vs
Mateusz Rebecki
Mateusz Rebecki
Age 32 · Elo 1515
LWWW
678 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Ludovit KleinMateusz Rebecki
Claude Claude: Ludovit Klein 71% Claude: Mateusz Rebecki 29% 71% 29% GPT GPT: Ludovit Klein 38% GPT: Mateusz Rebecki 62% 38% 62% Elo Elo: Ludovit Klein 56% Elo: Mateusz Rebecki 44% 56% 44%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Ludovit KleinMateusz Rebecki
Strikes landed / min Ludovit Klein Strikes landed / min: 3.81 3.81 Mateusz Rebecki Strikes landed / min: 4.69 4.69 Strikes absorbed / min Ludovit Klein Strikes absorbed / min: 3.22 3.22 Mateusz Rebecki Strikes absorbed / min: 4.15 4.15 Striking accuracy Ludovit Klein Striking accuracy: 54% 54% Mateusz Rebecki Striking accuracy: 48% 48% Striking defense Ludovit Klein Striking defense: 54% 54% Mateusz Rebecki Striking defense: 54% 54% Takedowns / 15 min Ludovit Klein Takedowns / 15 min: 1.70 1.70 Mateusz Rebecki Takedowns / 15 min: 4.12 4.12 Takedown defense Ludovit Klein Takedown defense: 91% 91% Mateusz Rebecki Takedown defense: 33% 33% Sub attempts / 15 min Ludovit Klein Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0 Mateusz Rebecki Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.0 1.0

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 12% 12% Claude: Decision 63% 63%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 13% 13% GPT: Submission 20% 20% GPT: Decision 67% 67%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Ludovit Klein by Decision, 71% confidence

Klein's exceptional recent form (5-0 streak) and superior takedown defense (91% vs 33%) give him clear advantages. His 6-inch reach advantage will be crucial in maintaining distance against Rebecki's aggressive style. Klein's defensive wrestling and striking accuracy create a stylistic nightmare for Rebecki, who relies heavily on takedowns (4.12 per fight) that Klein can stuff.

GPT
Mateusz Rebecki by Decision, 62% confidence

Rebecki's high takedown volume (4.12 per fight) and 75% accuracy, paired with a strong submission threat (1.0 sub avg), give him a clear grappling edge over Klein. Klein's 91% takedown defense will be tested rigorously, but Rebecki's pace and volume, both standing and on the mat, should allow him to control rounds. Klein's superior striking accuracy and significant reach advantage (6 inches) give him upset potential, but Rebecki's pressure and ability to mix in takedowns are likely to sway the scorecards.