Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Aspinall's devastating power and finishing instinct give him a significant edge. His 8.07 SLPM vs Gane's 5.49 shows superior output, while maintaining 67% accuracy. Aspinall has finished 4 straight fights by KO/TKO, including quick finishes of Volkov (submission) and Spivac (KO). Gane's technical striking is elite, but his chin was compromised by Ngannou and he tends to fight conservatively. Aspinall's aggressive pressure and heavier hands should find the target.

Aspinall's elite finishing rate, superior striking volume, and perfect grappling stats make him a stylistic nightmare for Gane, whose historically weak takedown defense and lack of ground threat have been exploited at the highest levels. Aspinall's striking differential and accuracy significantly surpass Gane's, and his ability to mix in takedowns at a 100% success rate further widens the gap. Gane's striking is technical and defensively sound, but his low output and defensive wrestling liabilities are decisive disadvantages in this matchup.