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UFC 321: Aspinall vs. GaneHeavyweightMain card
Tom Aspinall
Tom
Aspinall
8-1UFC
32 yrsElo 1645
VS
Ciryl Gane
Ciryl
Gane
10-2UFC
35 yrsElo 1653
Who wins
Claude
72%
Aspinall
GPT
77%
Aspinall
Elo
51%
Gane
1645 vs 1653
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'5" Height 6'4"
78" Reach 81"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
8.07 Landed / min 5.49
2.89 Absorbed / minlower better 2.19
67% Strike accuracy 60%
65% Strike defense 63%
3.27 Takedowns / 15 0.58
100% TD accuracy 21%
100% TD defense 50%
1.6 Subs / 15 0.5
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 65%Claude: Submission 10%Claude: Decision 25%
65%KO/TKO
Claude calls KO/TKO, Round 2
KO/TKO 65%Submission 10%Decision 25%
GPT: KO/TKO 60%GPT: Submission 17%GPT: Decision 23%
60%KO/TKO
GPT calls KO/TKO
KO/TKO 60%Submission 17%Decision 23%
Formnewest first
Tom Aspinall615 days out
W
Curtis Blaydes
KO/TKO · 2024-02-17
W
Sergei Pavlovich
KO/TKO · 2023-11-11
W
Marcin Tybura
KO/TKO · 2023-07-22
L
Curtis Blaydes
KO/TKO · 2022-07-23
W
Alexander Volkov
SUB · 2022-03-19
Ciryl Gane321 days out
W
Alexander Volkov
S-DEC · 2024-12-07
W
Serghei Spivac
KO/TKO · 2023-09-02
L
Jon Jones
SUB · 2023-03-04
W
Tai Tuivasa
KO/TKO · 2022-09-03
L
Francis Ngannou
U-DEC · 2022-01-22
Why
Claude
Tom Aspinall
72% · KO/TKO
  • Aspinall lands 8.07 strikes per minute vs Gane's 5.49 - 47% higher output with better accuracy (67% vs 60%)
  • Aspinall's 100% takedown accuracy and defense neutralizes Gane's wrestling threats
  • Both fighters beat Volkov and Spivac, but Aspinall finished both while Gane went to decision with Volkov
  • Aspinall's 256 lbs frame and aggressive style contrasts Gane's 245 lbs technical approach
Write-up

Aspinall's devastating power and finishing instinct give him a significant edge. His 8.07 SLPM vs Gane's 5.49 shows superior output, while maintaining 67% accuracy. Aspinall has finished 4 straight fights by KO/TKO, including quick finishes of Volkov (submission) and Spivac (KO). Gane's technical striking is elite, but his chin was compromised by Ngannou and he tends to fight conservatively. Aspinall's aggressive pressure and heavier hands should find the target.

GPT
Tom Aspinall
77% · KO/TKO
  • Aspinall's 100% takedown accuracy vs Gane's 50% takedown defense
  • Aspinall's striking volume (8.07 SLpM) and accuracy (67%) outpace Gane
  • Gane has struggled against strong wrestlers/grapplers in past UFC bouts
Write-up

Aspinall's elite finishing rate, superior striking volume, and perfect grappling stats make him a stylistic nightmare for Gane, whose historically weak takedown defense and lack of ground threat have been exploited at the highest levels. Aspinall's striking differential and accuracy significantly surpass Gane's, and his ability to mix in takedowns at a 100% success rate further widens the gap. Gane's striking is technical and defensively sound, but his low output and defensive wrestling liabilities are decisive disadvantages in this matchup.