Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Chris Barnett

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Barnett's 50% KO rate in recent fights and superior striking volume (4.41 vs 3.87 SLPM) give him the edge in this heavyweight clash. Abdelwahab's long layoff since July 2022 and overturned loss raise concerns about ring rust and preparation. Barnett's 3-inch reach advantage despite being 5 inches shorter allows him to strike from unexpected angles. His recent KO win shows he maintains finishing power, while Abdelwahab's 0% takedown defense is concerning against any grappling exchanges.

Abdelwahab's strong wrestling base and high takedown accuracy (75%) give him a clear path to neutralize Barnett, who has poor takedown defense (33%) and absorbs significantly more strikes than he lands. While Barnett is more active and dangerous on the feet, his striking defense (40%) and tendency to get hit make him vulnerable to being controlled for long periods. Abdelwahab is likely to rack up control time and avoid Barnett's explosive stand-up threats.