Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Maksum's southpaw stance and 6-inch reach advantage will be decisive factors against the shorter Raposo. While both fighters have struggled recently, Maksum's superior defensive metrics (55% vs 51% striking defense) and better takedown defense (66% vs 50%) suggest he can neutralize Raposo's wrestling-heavy approach. The striking accuracy differential heavily favors Raposo (33% vs 23%), but Maksum's reach and stance will allow him to control distance and avoid exchanges.

Maksum holds a slight edge in grappling output and defensive metrics, particularly with better takedown defense (66% vs 50%) and a marginally higher win rate. Raposo is more accurate in both striking and takedowns, but he absorbs less punishment per minute. However, Maksum's superior wrestling defense and ability to avoid submissions give him a durability edge in what projects as a closely contested, grinding fight. Neither fighter demonstrates high finishing rates, so a judges' decision is most likely.