- 6-inch reach advantage allows Maksum to control distance from southpaw stance
- Superior takedown defense (66% vs 50%) to stuff Raposo's wrestling attempts
- Better striking defense (55% vs 51%) despite lower accuracy suggests better defensive positioning
- Raposo on 2-fight losing streak with declining confidence and momentum
Write-up
Maksum's southpaw stance and 6-inch reach advantage will be decisive factors against the shorter Raposo. While both fighters have struggled recently, Maksum's superior defensive metrics (55% vs 51% striking defense) and better takedown defense (66% vs 50%) suggest he can neutralize Raposo's wrestling-heavy approach. The striking accuracy differential heavily favors Raposo (33% vs 23%), but Maksum's reach and stance will allow him to control distance and avoid exchanges.
- Superior takedown defense for Maksum (66%)
- Higher striking output for Maksum (2.8 SLPM)
- Both fighters lack finishing ability, favoring a decision
Write-up
Maksum holds a slight edge in grappling output and defensive metrics, particularly with better takedown defense (66% vs 50%) and a marginally higher win rate. Raposo is more accurate in both striking and takedowns, but he absorbs less punishment per minute. However, Maksum's superior wrestling defense and ability to avoid submissions give him a durability edge in what projects as a closely contested, grinding fight. Neither fighter demonstrates high finishing rates, so a judges' decision is most likely.