Alexander Volkov vs Jailton Almeida

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Almeida's elite grappling (6.85 TD/15min, 59% accuracy) poses severe problems for Volkov's 73% TDD. Volkov's 4-inch height advantage becomes a liability in grappling exchanges. Almeida's 2.6 submissions per fight and recent submission victories over Romanov and Rozenstruik demonstrate his ability to finish elite heavyweights. Volkov's striking volume (5.13 SLPM) won't have time to accumulate damage before Almeida secures a takedown.

Almeida's elite grappling and takedown volume (6.85 per fight) present a stylistic challenge for Volkov, whose takedown defense (73%) is solid but has been exploited by strong wrestlers. Almeida's submission average (2.6 per fight) and finishing ability on the ground are significantly higher, while Volkov is less dangerous off his back. Volkov's striking advantage and experience give him a path to victory if he can maintain distance, but Almeida's recent performances against common opponents and his relentless ground attack tip the matchup in his favor.