Light Heavyweight · Prelims · UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
FINAL: Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO Punch
Aleksandar Rakic
Age 33 · Elo 1546
LLWWL
560 days since last fight
vs
Azamat Murzakanov
Age 36 · Elo 1579
WLWWW
140 days since last fight
Who wins, by source
Aleksandar RakicAzamat Murzakanov
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Aleksandar RakicAzamat Murzakanov
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
Claude
Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO, 62% confidence
Murzakanov's superior striking defense (61% vs 50%) and recent knockout power give him the edge. Rakic has lost his last two fights by KO/TKO and shows vulnerability to strikes. The southpaw stance creates awkward angles for Rakic's orthodox approach, and Murzakanov's 4-1 record with 3 KO/TKO finishes demonstrates consistent finishing ability.
GPT
Aleksandar Rakic by Decision, 68% confidence
Rakic holds a significant reach advantage (7 inches) and strong takedown defense (85%) which will help him control the range against Murzakanov. While Murzakanov is more accurate and lands at a higher rate, Rakic's defensive fundamentals, physical size, and experience against elite competition should allow him to mitigate Murzakanov's bursts and edge out rounds in a competitive, mostly striking-based contest.