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Aleksandar Rakic vs Azamat Murzakanov

Light Heavyweight · Prelims · UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane

FINAL: Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO Punch
Aleksandar Rakic
Aleksandar Rakic
Age 33 · Elo 1546
LLWWL
560 days since last fight
vs
Azamat Murzakanov
Azamat Murzakanov
Age 36 · Elo 1579
WLWWW
140 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Aleksandar RakicAzamat Murzakanov
Claude Claude: Aleksandar Rakic 38% Claude: Azamat Murzakanov 62% 38% 62% GPT GPT: Aleksandar Rakic 68% GPT: Azamat Murzakanov 32% 68% 32% Elo Elo: Aleksandar Rakic 45% Elo: Azamat Murzakanov 55% 45% 55%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Aleksandar RakicAzamat Murzakanov
Strikes landed / min Aleksandar Rakic Strikes landed / min: 4.20 4.20 Azamat Murzakanov Strikes landed / min: 4.40 4.40 Strikes absorbed / min Aleksandar Rakic Strikes absorbed / min: 2.78 2.78 Azamat Murzakanov Strikes absorbed / min: 3.20 3.20 Striking accuracy Aleksandar Rakic Striking accuracy: 50% 50% Azamat Murzakanov Striking accuracy: 56% 56% Striking defense Aleksandar Rakic Striking defense: 54% 54% Azamat Murzakanov Striking defense: 56% 56% Takedowns / 15 min Aleksandar Rakic Takedowns / 15 min: 0.57 0.57 Azamat Murzakanov Takedowns / 15 min: 0.68 0.68 Takedown defense Aleksandar Rakic Takedown defense: 86% 86% Azamat Murzakanov Takedown defense: 88% 88% Sub attempts / 15 min Aleksandar Rakic Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.1 0.1 Azamat Murzakanov Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.2 0.2

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 48% 48% Claude: Submission 8% 8% Claude: Decision 44% 44%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 18% 18% GPT: Submission 2% GPT: Decision 80% 80%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO, 62% confidence

Murzakanov's superior striking defense (61% vs 50%) and recent knockout power give him the edge. Rakic has lost his last two fights by KO/TKO and shows vulnerability to strikes. The southpaw stance creates awkward angles for Rakic's orthodox approach, and Murzakanov's 4-1 record with 3 KO/TKO finishes demonstrates consistent finishing ability.

GPT
Aleksandar Rakic by Decision, 68% confidence

Rakic holds a significant reach advantage (7 inches) and strong takedown defense (85%) which will help him control the range against Murzakanov. While Murzakanov is more accurate and lands at a higher rate, Rakic's defensive fundamentals, physical size, and experience against elite competition should allow him to mitigate Murzakanov's bursts and edge out rounds in a competitive, mostly striking-based contest.