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Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs Matheus Camilo

Lightweight · Prelims · UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
Age 30 · Elo 1474*
L
601 days since last fight
vs
Matheus Camilo
Matheus Camilo
Age 24 · Elo 1475*
L
161 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Abdul-Kareem Al-SelwadyMatheus Camilo
Claude Claude: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady 62% Claude: Matheus Camilo 38% 62% 38% GPT GPT: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady 74% GPT: Matheus Camilo 26% 74% 26% Elo Elo: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady 50% Elo: Matheus Camilo 50% 50% 50%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Abdul-Kareem Al-SelwadyMatheus Camilo
Strikes landed / min Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady Strikes landed / min: 4.61 4.61 Matheus Camilo Strikes landed / min: no data - Strikes absorbed / min Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady Strikes absorbed / min: 3.43 3.43 Matheus Camilo Strikes absorbed / min: no data - Striking accuracy Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady Striking accuracy: 41% 41% Matheus Camilo Striking accuracy: 0% 0% Striking defense Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady Striking defense: 60% 60% Matheus Camilo Striking defense: 0% 0% Takedowns / 15 min Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady Takedowns / 15 min: 1.47 1.47 Matheus Camilo Takedowns / 15 min: no data - Takedown defense Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady Takedown defense: 54% 54% Matheus Camilo Takedown defense: 0% 0% Sub attempts / 15 min Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0 Matheus Camilo Sub attempts / 15 min: no data -

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 15% 15% Claude: Submission 20% 20% Claude: Decision 65% 65%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 17% 17% GPT: Submission 13% 13% GPT: Decision 70% 70%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady by Decision, 62% confidence

Al-Selwady enters with UFC experience despite his recent KO loss, while Camilo makes his debut with no recorded UFC stats. Al-Selwady's 2.32 takedowns per fight and 30% accuracy suggests a wrestling-heavy approach against the unproven Camilo. The 34% striking accuracy is concerning, but Camilo's complete lack of UFC data makes him a significant unknown. Al-Selwady's experience edge and proven ability to implement a grappling gameplan should carry him through.

GPT
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady by Decision, 74% confidence

Al-Selwady displays significantly superior statistical output in both striking and grappling compared to Camilo, whose UFC-level data is currently unavailable or negligible. Al-Selwady's moderate striking volume, solid defensive stats, and active takedown attempts provide him with clear paths to outpoint Camilo over three rounds. Camilo's lack of UFC data raises questions about his ability to compete at this level, and Al-Selwady's wrestling could be decisive given Camilo's unproven takedown defense.