Josh Emmett vs Youssef Zalal

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Zalal's superior grappling (2.33 TD/fight vs 0.91, 1.4 sub/fight vs 0.1) and defensive striking (66% vs 61%) create a nightmare matchup for the aging Emmett. At 39, Emmett's explosiveness has diminished, and his recent submission loss to Bryce Mitchell exposed his ground game vulnerabilities. Zalal's 3 submission wins in his last 4 fights demonstrate elite finishing ability on the mat.

Zalal's superior striking accuracy, higher striking defense, and substantial grappling output are likely to neutralize Emmett's power. Emmett's declining defensive metrics and low takedown defense present openings for Zalal to implement a mixed-attack gameplan, control the tempo, and accumulate points over three rounds.