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Merab Dvalishvili vs Cory Sandhagen

Bantamweight · Main card · UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2

FINAL: Merab Dvalishvili by U-DEC
Merab Dvalishvili
Merab Dvalishvili
Age 34 · Elo 1660
WWWWW
119 days since last fight
vs
Cory Sandhagen
Cory Sandhagen
Age 33 · Elo 1623
WLWWW
154 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Merab DvalishviliCory Sandhagen
Claude Claude: Merab Dvalishvili 75% Claude: Cory Sandhagen 25% 75% 25% GPT GPT: Merab Dvalishvili 70% GPT: Cory Sandhagen 30% 70% 30% Elo Elo: Merab Dvalishvili 55% Elo: Cory Sandhagen 45% 55% 45%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Merab DvalishviliCory Sandhagen
Strikes landed / min Merab Dvalishvili Strikes landed / min: 4.31 4.31 Cory Sandhagen Strikes landed / min: 4.92 4.92 Strikes absorbed / min Merab Dvalishvili Strikes absorbed / min: 2.48 2.48 Cory Sandhagen Strikes absorbed / min: 3.72 3.72 Striking accuracy Merab Dvalishvili Striking accuracy: 42% 42% Cory Sandhagen Striking accuracy: 45% 45% Striking defense Merab Dvalishvili Striking defense: 56% 56% Cory Sandhagen Striking defense: 55% 55% Takedowns / 15 min Merab Dvalishvili Takedowns / 15 min: 5.84 5.84 Cory Sandhagen Takedowns / 15 min: 1.14 1.14 Takedown defense Merab Dvalishvili Takedown defense: 82% 82% Cory Sandhagen Takedown defense: 57% 57% Sub attempts / 15 min Merab Dvalishvili Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3 Cory Sandhagen Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.2 0.2

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 15% 15% Claude: Submission 10% 10% Claude: Decision 75% 75%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 5% GPT: Submission 10% 10% GPT: Decision 85% 85%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Merab Dvalishvili by Decision, 75% confidence

Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling pressure (5.84 takedowns per fight) will overwhelm Sandhagen's inferior takedown defense (63%). Merab's superior cardio and 10-fight win streak demonstrate championship-level consistency. His victories over common opponents Yan and Moraes, compared to Sandhagen's loss to Yan, indicate a clear competitive advantage in this matchup.

GPT
Merab Dvalishvili by Decision, 70% confidence

Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling pace and elite takedown defense are likely to neutralize Sandhagen's striking volume. Merab's ability to control position and outwork opponents over five rounds is supported by his superior win rate and recent victories over high-level competition, including common opponents. Sandhagen's defensive grappling and reach give him moments, but Dvalishvili's style is historically effective against rangy strikers with moderate takedown defense.