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Veronica Hardy vs Brogan Walker

Women's Flyweight · Prelims · UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2

FINAL: Veronica Hardy by U-DEC
Veronica Hardy
Veronica Hardy
Age 29 · Elo 1514
WWWWL
321 days since last fight
vs
Brogan Walker
Brogan Walker
Age 37 · Elo 1439*
LL
896 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Veronica HardyBrogan Walker
Claude Claude: Veronica Hardy 78% Claude: Brogan Walker 22% 78% 22% GPT GPT: Veronica Hardy 75% GPT: Brogan Walker 25% 75% 25% Elo Elo: Veronica Hardy 61% Elo: Brogan Walker 39% 61% 39%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Veronica HardyBrogan Walker
Strikes landed / min Veronica Hardy Strikes landed / min: 3.13 3.13 Brogan Walker Strikes landed / min: 1.84 1.84 Strikes absorbed / min Veronica Hardy Strikes absorbed / min: 3.75 3.75 Brogan Walker Strikes absorbed / min: 3.32 3.32 Striking accuracy Veronica Hardy Striking accuracy: 45% 45% Brogan Walker Striking accuracy: 32% 32% Striking defense Veronica Hardy Striking defense: 47% 47% Brogan Walker Striking defense: 47% 47% Takedowns / 15 min Veronica Hardy Takedowns / 15 min: 1.08 1.08 Brogan Walker Takedowns / 15 min: 1.02 1.02 Takedown defense Veronica Hardy Takedown defense: 60% 60% Brogan Walker Takedown defense: 11% 11% Sub attempts / 15 min Veronica Hardy Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3 Brogan Walker Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 15% 15% Claude: Submission 12% 12% Claude: Decision 73% 73%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 10% 10% GPT: Submission 15% 15% GPT: Decision 75% 75%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Veronica Hardy by Decision, 78% confidence

Hardy's superior form (5-fight win streak vs Walker's 2-fight losing streak) combined with her grappling advantage creates a clear path to victory. Walker's 11% takedown defense is catastrophic against Hardy's 1.08 takedowns per fight. Hardy's southpaw stance against Walker's switch stance, coupled with Walker's poor 30% striking accuracy, allows Hardy to control distance and mix in takedowns effectively.

GPT
Veronica Hardy by Decision, 75% confidence

Veronica Hardy holds statistical advantages in striking accuracy, output, and grappling. Her takedown defense and offensive wrestling are superior, and her performance against common opponents is notably better. Brogan Walker's low striking volume, poor takedown defense (11%), and negative strike differential (-1.66) are significant liabilities against Hardy's more well-rounded skillset.