Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Gautier's striking metrics are overwhelmingly superior - 5.33 SLPM with 71% accuracy versus Diaz's 1.65 SLPM with just 32% accuracy. Diaz's -2.26 strike differential and 44% striking defense create a massive vulnerability. Gautier's 90% takedown defense neutralizes any grappling threat. Diaz is dropping from light heavyweight after a recent loss, suggesting weight management issues.

Gautier demonstrates superior striking accuracy (71% vs 32%), much higher output (5.33 SLPM vs 1.65), and absorbs significantly fewer strikes per minute (1.22 vs 3.91). His defensive metrics and takedown defense (90%) suggest Diaz will struggle to impose any grappling threat. Diaz's negative striking differential and low efficiency indicate he will be outvolumed and outlanded. However, Gautier's finish rate appears low, so a decision is most likely.