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Edmen Shahbazyan vs Andre Muniz

Middleweight · Prelims · UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2

FINAL: Edmen Shahbazyan by KO/TKO Elbows
Edmen Shahbazyan
Edmen Shahbazyan
Age 27 · Elo 1573
WWWLL
112 days since last fight
vs
Andre Muniz
Andre Muniz
Age 35 · Elo 1559
LWLLW
161 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Edmen ShahbazyanAndre Muniz
Claude Claude: Edmen Shahbazyan 38% Claude: Andre Muniz 62% 38% 62% GPT GPT: Edmen Shahbazyan 25% GPT: Andre Muniz 75% 25% 75% Elo Elo: Edmen Shahbazyan 52% Elo: Andre Muniz 48% 52% 48%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Edmen ShahbazyanAndre Muniz
Strikes landed / min Edmen Shahbazyan Strikes landed / min: 4.06 4.06 Andre Muniz Strikes landed / min: 2.08 2.08 Strikes absorbed / min Edmen Shahbazyan Strikes absorbed / min: 3.87 3.87 Andre Muniz Strikes absorbed / min: 2.46 2.46 Striking accuracy Edmen Shahbazyan Striking accuracy: 48% 48% Andre Muniz Striking accuracy: 48% 48% Striking defense Edmen Shahbazyan Striking defense: 50% 50% Andre Muniz Striking defense: 51% 51% Takedowns / 15 min Edmen Shahbazyan Takedowns / 15 min: 1.43 1.43 Andre Muniz Takedowns / 15 min: 3.98 3.98 Takedown defense Edmen Shahbazyan Takedown defense: 66% 66% Andre Muniz Takedown defense: 35% 35% Sub attempts / 15 min Edmen Shahbazyan Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.4 0.4 Andre Muniz Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.1 1.1

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 22% 22% Claude: Submission 48% 48% Claude: Decision 30% 30%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 8% 8% GPT: Submission 62% 62% GPT: Decision 30% 30%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Andre Muniz by Submission, 62% confidence

Muniz's elite submission game (1.2 sub avg) directly exploits Shahbazyan's vulnerability - Edmen has lost 2 of his last 5 by submission. Muniz averages 4.23 takedowns per fight with 50% accuracy, while Shahbazyan defends only 65% of attempts. The southpaw stance gives Muniz angles for level changes. Shahbazyan's inconsistent 50% win rate and tendency to get finished (3 finishes in last 5) favor the submission specialist.

GPT
Andre Muniz by Submission, 75% confidence

Muniz holds a significant grappling advantage with over 4 takedowns per fight, 1.2 submissions per fight, and a 50% takedown accuracy. Shahbazyan has struggled defensively against strong grapplers, with only 65% takedown defense and a negative striking differential. Muniz's submission threat is pronounced, and Shahbazyan's grappling has been a consistent weakness in his losses.