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Magomed Ankalaev vs Alex Pereira

Light Heavyweight · Main card · UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2

FINAL: Alex Pereira by KO/TKO Elbows
Magomed Ankalaev
Magomed Ankalaev
Age 33 · Elo 1635
WWWLW
209 days since last fight
vs
Alex Pereira
Alex Pereira
Age 38 · Elo 1672
LWWWW
209 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Magomed AnkalaevAlex Pereira
Claude Claude: Magomed Ankalaev 35% Claude: Alex Pereira 65% 35% 65% GPT GPT: Magomed Ankalaev 32% GPT: Alex Pereira 68% 32% 68% Elo Elo: Magomed Ankalaev 45% Elo: Alex Pereira 55% 45% 55%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Magomed AnkalaevAlex Pereira
Strikes landed / min Magomed Ankalaev Strikes landed / min: 3.64 3.64 Alex Pereira Strikes landed / min: 5.01 5.01 Strikes absorbed / min Magomed Ankalaev Strikes absorbed / min: 2.25 2.25 Alex Pereira Strikes absorbed / min: 3.72 3.72 Striking accuracy Magomed Ankalaev Striking accuracy: 53% 53% Alex Pereira Striking accuracy: 61% 61% Striking defense Magomed Ankalaev Striking defense: 59% 59% Alex Pereira Striking defense: 52% 52% Takedowns / 15 min Magomed Ankalaev Takedowns / 15 min: 1.02 1.02 Alex Pereira Takedowns / 15 min: 0.11 0.11 Takedown defense Magomed Ankalaev Takedown defense: 86% 86% Alex Pereira Takedown defense: 80% 80% Sub attempts / 15 min Magomed Ankalaev Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0 Alex Pereira Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.2 0.2

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 55% 55% Claude: Submission 5% Claude: Decision 40% 40%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 65% 65% GPT: Submission 5% GPT: Decision 30% 30%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Alex Pereira by KO/TKO, 65% confidence

Pereira's superior striking volume (5.46 vs 3.64 SLPM) and knockout power give him the edge in this rematch. While Ankalaev has better takedown defense (86% vs 70%), his low takedown accuracy (31%) limits his ability to exploit Pereira's weaker ground game. Pereira's 4-inch reach advantage and perfect recent KO streak demonstrate his ability to find the finish against elite competition.

GPT
Alex Pereira by KO/TKO, 68% confidence

Alex Pereira's significant striking advantage, higher accuracy, and power give him an edge in a largely stand-up fight. Ankalaev's grappling could pose problems, but his wrestling output is low, and Pereira has shown improved takedown defense. Pereira's finishing ability and volume are key, especially considering Ankalaev's moderate output and tendency to engage at range.