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UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. ChimaevMiddleweightMain card
Jared Cannonier
Jared
Cannonier
11-8UFC
41 yrsElo 1559
VS
Michael PageWINNER
Michael
Page
2-1UFC
38 yrsElo 1578
Final: Michael Page by U-DEC
Who wins
Claude
72%
Cannonier
GPT
67%
Cannonier
Elo
53%
Page
1559 vs 1578
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'11" Height 6'3"
77" Reach 79"
Switch Stance Switch
4.60 Landed / min 2.28
4.49 Absorbed / minlower better 1.51
50% Strike accuracy 58%
56% Strike defense 62%
0.46 Takedowns / 15 0.19
44% TD accuracy 16%
64% TD defense 70%
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 45%Claude: Submission 5%Claude: Decision 50%
50%Decision
Claude calls KO/TKO, Round 2
KO/TKO 45%Submission 5%Decision 50%
GPT: KO/TKO 57%GPT: Submission 3%GPT: Decision 40%
57%KO/TKO
GPT calls KO/TKO
KO/TKO 57%Submission 3%Decision 40%
Formnewest first
Jared Cannonier181 days out
W
Gregory Rodrigues
KO/TKO Punches · 2025-02-15
L
Caio Borralho
U-DEC · 2024-03-16
L
Nassourdine Imavov
KO/TKO · 2024-01-06
W
Marvin Vettori
U-DEC · 2023-06-17
W
Sean Strickland
S-DEC · 2022-12-17
Michael Page195 days out
W
Shara Magomedov
U-DEC · 2025-02-01
W
Kevin Holland
U-DEC · 2024-03-09
L
Ian Machado Garry
U-DEC · 2024-01-27
Why
Claude
Jared Cannonier
72% · KO/TKO
  • Volume differential: Cannonier lands 82% more strikes per minute (4.6 vs 2.53)
  • Weight class jump: Page moving up from 170 to 185, facing true middleweight power for first time
  • Defensive liability: Page's 55% striking defense vs Cannonier's proven KO power at 185
  • Experience edge: Cannonier has faced elite middleweights while Page lost to mid-tier welterweights
Write-up

Cannonier's power striking and durability advantage should overwhelm Page's flashy but lower-volume approach. Page is moving up from welterweight where he struggled against top competition, and Cannonier's 82% higher striking volume (4.6 vs 2.53 SLPM) combined with his proven middleweight power presents a significant challenge. Page's 55% striking defense is vulnerable to Cannonier's switch-stance attacks, and the 4-fight losing streak actually motivates Cannonier to return to his aggressive roots.

GPT
Jared Cannonier
67% · KO/TKO
  • Cannonier's striking volume and power
  • Page's lower output despite high accuracy
  • Similar takedown defense and limited grappling threat
Write-up

Cannonier's higher striking volume and proven knockout power give him the edge against Page, who has a lower output and less experience against elite middleweight finishers. While Page's striking accuracy and movement will present early problems, Cannonier's pressure, durability, and ability to land big shots over three rounds are likely to wear Page down. Both fighters have similar takedown defense, making a striking battle likely, where Cannonier's physicality and volume should prevail.