Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Chimaev's elite wrestling (4.31 TD/15min, 100% TDD) and submission game (2.8 subs/15min) presents a nightmare matchup for Du Plessis, who has shown vulnerability to grapplers (50% TDD). While Du Plessis has superior striking defense (54% vs 41%), Chimaev's relentless pressure and cardio from his recent middleweight fights will overwhelm the champion. Du Plessis's switch stance won't neutralize Chimaev's wrestling entries, and his recent submission losses indicate a pattern against elite grapplers.

Chimaev's grappling and submission numbers are elite, with 4.31 takedowns per 15 minutes and a high 2.8 submission average, while Du Plessis has shown only 50% takedown defense. Du Plessis is durable and high-volume offensively, but Chimaev's 100% takedown defense and superior positional grappling present major stylistic challenges for Du Plessis, who is less effective off his back.