Lightweight · Prelims · UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
FINAL: Drakkar Klose by U-DEC
Edson Barboza
Age 39 · Elo 1527
LWWLL
601 days since last fight
vs
Drakkar Klose
Age 37 · Elo 1583
LWWWW
244 days since last fight
Who wins, by source
Edson BarbozaDrakkar Klose
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Edson BarbozaDrakkar Klose
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
Claude
Drakkar Klose by Decision, 58% confidence
Klose's 5-fight win streak and superior recent form (83.3% win rate) contrasts with Barboza's age (39) and mixed results. While Barboza holds a 5-inch reach advantage, Klose's better striking defense (50% vs 56%) and positive strike differential (+0.79 vs -0.54) indicate he can weather Barboza's attacks and outwork him over three rounds.
GPT
Drakkar Klose by Decision, 70% confidence
Klose has superior striking accuracy, a positive strike differential, and a higher win rate. His higher takedown volume, combined with Barboza's declining strike differential and absorption rate, indicate Klose can mix in wrestling to disrupt Barboza's rhythm. Barboza's 5-inch reach edge and experience may lead to some success, but Klose's durability and pace are more likely to sway the judges.