Fight Genie logo Fight Genie
Back to the card

Edson Barboza vs Drakkar Klose

Lightweight · Prelims · UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev

FINAL: Drakkar Klose by U-DEC
Edson Barboza
Edson Barboza
Age 39 · Elo 1527
LWWLL
601 days since last fight
vs
Drakkar Klose
Drakkar Klose
Age 37 · Elo 1583
LWWWW
244 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Edson BarbozaDrakkar Klose
Claude Claude: Edson Barboza 42% Claude: Drakkar Klose 58% 42% 58% GPT GPT: Edson Barboza 30% GPT: Drakkar Klose 70% 30% 70% Elo Elo: Edson Barboza 42% Elo: Drakkar Klose 58% 42% 58%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Edson BarbozaDrakkar Klose
Strikes landed / min Edson Barboza Strikes landed / min: 4.14 4.14 Drakkar Klose Strikes landed / min: 4.33 4.33 Strikes absorbed / min Edson Barboza Strikes absorbed / min: 4.68 4.68 Drakkar Klose Strikes absorbed / min: 3.54 3.54 Striking accuracy Edson Barboza Striking accuracy: 44% 44% Drakkar Klose Striking accuracy: 55% 55% Striking defense Edson Barboza Striking defense: 55% 55% Drakkar Klose Striking defense: 50% 50% Takedowns / 15 min Edson Barboza Takedowns / 15 min: 0.43 0.43 Drakkar Klose Takedowns / 15 min: 1.65 1.65 Takedown defense Edson Barboza Takedown defense: 73% 73% Drakkar Klose Takedown defense: 69% 69% Sub attempts / 15 min Edson Barboza Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.1 0.1 Drakkar Klose Sub attempts / 15 min: no data -

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 5% Claude: Decision 70% 70%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 20% 20% GPT: Submission 5% GPT: Decision 75% 75%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Drakkar Klose by Decision, 58% confidence

Klose's 5-fight win streak and superior recent form (83.3% win rate) contrasts with Barboza's age (39) and mixed results. While Barboza holds a 5-inch reach advantage, Klose's better striking defense (50% vs 56%) and positive strike differential (+0.79 vs -0.54) indicate he can weather Barboza's attacks and outwork him over three rounds.

GPT
Drakkar Klose by Decision, 70% confidence

Klose has superior striking accuracy, a positive strike differential, and a higher win rate. His higher takedown volume, combined with Barboza's declining strike differential and absorption rate, indicate Klose can mix in wrestling to disrupt Barboza's rhythm. Barboza's 5-inch reach edge and experience may lead to some success, but Klose's durability and pace are more likely to sway the judges.