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Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates

Welterweight · Main card · UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev

FINAL: Carlos Prates by KO/TKO Spinning Back Elbow
Geoff Neal
Geoff Neal
Age 34 · Elo 1556
LLWWL
545 days since last fight
vs
Carlos Prates
Carlos Prates
Age 31 · Elo 1578
LLWWW
112 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Geoff NealCarlos Prates
Claude Claude: Geoff Neal 35% Claude: Carlos Prates 65% 35% 65% GPT GPT: Geoff Neal 68% GPT: Carlos Prates 32% 68% 32% Elo Elo: Geoff Neal 47% Elo: Carlos Prates 53% 47% 53%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Geoff NealCarlos Prates
Strikes landed / min Geoff Neal Strikes landed / min: 5.05 5.05 Carlos Prates Strikes landed / min: 3.60 3.60 Strikes absorbed / min Geoff Neal Strikes absorbed / min: 5.44 5.44 Carlos Prates Strikes absorbed / min: 4.79 4.79 Striking accuracy Geoff Neal Striking accuracy: 51% 51% Carlos Prates Striking accuracy: 54% 54% Striking defense Geoff Neal Striking defense: 57% 57% Carlos Prates Striking defense: 48% 48% Takedowns / 15 min Geoff Neal Takedowns / 15 min: 0.56 0.56 Carlos Prates Takedowns / 15 min: 0.25 0.25 Takedown defense Geoff Neal Takedown defense: 87% 87% Carlos Prates Takedown defense: 83% 83% Sub attempts / 15 min Geoff Neal Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.1 0.1 Carlos Prates Sub attempts / 15 min: no data -

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 55% 55% Claude: Submission 5% Claude: Decision 40% 40%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 23% 23% GPT: Submission 4% GPT: Decision 73% 73%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Carlos Prates by KO/TKO, 65% confidence

Prates enters with devastating momentum (4 straight KO/TKO wins) against a declining Neal (2-3 last 5). The physical advantages are crucial - Prates' 78-inch reach and 6'1" frame create significant striking opportunities against the shorter Neal. While Neal has better striking volume (5.05 vs 3.6 SLPM), Prates' recent finishing rate and Neal's defensive vulnerabilities (absorbed 5.44 strikes/min) suggest a knockout is likely. Neal's southpaw stance could provide early success, but Prates' switch stance adaptability and power will prevail.

GPT
Geoff Neal by Decision, 68% confidence

Geoff Neal holds a significant edge in striking volume, defense, and UFC experience. While Carlos Prates possesses slightly higher striking accuracy and physical advantages, his defensive metrics and strike differential indicate vulnerability against high-output strikers. Neal's superior takedown defense nullifies Prates' limited grappling threats, and Neal's southpaw stance could offset some of Prates' reach advantage. Expect a competitive striking battle, but Neal's output and durability should carry him to a decision win.