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Baisangur Susurkaev vs Eric Nolan

Middleweight · Prelims · UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev

FINAL: Baisangur Susurkaev by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Baisangur Susurkaev
Baisangur Susurkaev
Age 24 · Elo 1567*
No UFC fights on record
vs
Eric Nolan
Eric Nolan
Age 27 · Elo 1476*
No UFC fights on record

Who wins, by source

Baisangur SusurkaevEric Nolan
Claude Claude: Baisangur Susurkaev 68% Claude: Eric Nolan 32% 68% 32% GPT GPT: Baisangur Susurkaev 78% GPT: Eric Nolan 22% 78% 22% Elo Elo: Baisangur Susurkaev 63% Elo: Eric Nolan 37% 63% 37%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Baisangur SusurkaevEric Nolan
Strikes landed / min Baisangur Susurkaev Strikes landed / min: 3.26 3.26 Eric Nolan Strikes landed / min: no data - Strikes absorbed / min Baisangur Susurkaev Strikes absorbed / min: 2.28 2.28 Eric Nolan Strikes absorbed / min: no data - Striking accuracy Baisangur Susurkaev Striking accuracy: 58% 58% Eric Nolan Striking accuracy: 0% 0% Striking defense Baisangur Susurkaev Striking defense: 46% 46% Eric Nolan Striking defense: 0% 0% Takedown defense Baisangur Susurkaev Takedown defense: 100% 100% Eric Nolan Takedown defense: 0% 0%

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 10% 10% Claude: Decision 65% 65%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 15% 15% GPT: Submission 7% GPT: Decision 78% 78%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Baisangur Susurkaev by Decision, 68% confidence

Susurkaev holds significant advantages in every measurable metric against a debuting Nolan with no UFC statistics. His 5-inch reach advantage, 58% striking accuracy, and 100% takedown defense create a comprehensive edge. The 3.26 strikes landed per minute with positive differential (+0.98) suggests Susurkaev can control range and pace. Nolan's complete lack of UFC data makes this a high-risk debut against an established striker.

GPT
Baisangur Susurkaev by Decision, 78% confidence

Susurkaev has demonstrated effective and accurate striking with a 58% accuracy and positive strike differential, while Nolan's statistical profile is essentially blank, suggesting either limited or no UFC data. Additionally, Susurkaev's perfect takedown defense indicates strong defensive awareness. Given the lack of data or proven effectiveness from Nolan, Susurkaev is a clear favorite to win on points.