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Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez

Lightweight · Prelims · UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev

FINAL: Alexander Hernandez by KO/TKO Punch
Chase Hooper
Chase Hooper
Age 25 · Elo 1557
WWWWW
126 days since last fight
vs
Alexander Hernandez
Alexander Hernandez
Age 32 · Elo 1549
WWLLW
154 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Chase HooperAlexander Hernandez
Claude Claude: Chase Hooper 65% Claude: Alexander Hernandez 35% 65% 35% GPT GPT: Chase Hooper 62% GPT: Alexander Hernandez 38% 62% 38% Elo Elo: Chase Hooper 51% Elo: Alexander Hernandez 49% 51% 49%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Chase HooperAlexander Hernandez
Strikes landed / min Chase Hooper Strikes landed / min: 4.53 4.53 Alexander Hernandez Strikes landed / min: 4.38 4.38 Strikes absorbed / min Chase Hooper Strikes absorbed / min: 2.96 2.96 Alexander Hernandez Strikes absorbed / min: 4.62 4.62 Striking accuracy Chase Hooper Striking accuracy: 51% 51% Alexander Hernandez Striking accuracy: 40% 40% Striking defense Chase Hooper Striking defense: 38% 38% Alexander Hernandez Striking defense: 57% 57% Takedowns / 15 min Chase Hooper Takedowns / 15 min: 2.59 2.59 Alexander Hernandez Takedowns / 15 min: 1.24 1.24 Takedown defense Chase Hooper Takedown defense: 55% 55% Alexander Hernandez Takedown defense: 71% 71% Sub attempts / 15 min Chase Hooper Sub attempts / 15 min: 2.2 2.2 Alexander Hernandez Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.1 0.1

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 15% 15% Claude: Submission 55% 55% Claude: Decision 30% 30%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 8% 8% GPT: Submission 54% 54% GPT: Decision 38% 38%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Chase Hooper by Submission, 65% confidence

Hooper's 4-fight win streak (3 by submission) showcases elite grappling against Hernandez's poor 36% takedown accuracy and minimal submission defense. The 4-inch height and 2-inch reach advantage allows Hooper to control distance and secure takedowns. Hernandez's recent weight class instability (3 changes) suggests compromised performance.

GPT
Chase Hooper by Submission, 62% confidence

Hooper holds significant grappling and submission advantages, evidenced by his higher takedown (2.59 per fight) and submission averages (2.2 per fight) compared to Hernandez's low submission output (0.1 per fight). Hernandez does possess superior striking defense (57% vs. 38%) and a higher takedown defense (71%), but Hooper's superior offensive grappling and positive strike differential (+1.57) suggest he can create submission opportunities, especially as Hernandez has struggled against strong grapplers in the past.