Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Murphy's UFC experience and complete statistical profile dominate this matchup against Pico, who has zero UFC data. Murphy's 88.9% win rate, superior striking volume (4.53 SLPM), and 61% striking defense showcase a well-rounded game. His 5-fight winning streak with consistent decision victories indicates excellent cardio and fight IQ. Pico's transition from Bellator remains unproven at UFC level, and Murphy's 73-inch reach advantage will control distance throughout.

Murphy has a proven UFC record with efficient striking output, high striking accuracy, and solid defense. Pico's statistical profile is incomplete at the UFC level, making it difficult to project his effectiveness against high-caliber competition. Murphy's 61% striking defense and +2.05 strike differential suggest he can manage Pico's aggression and maintain distance, while his takedown defense, though not elite, is sufficient against an opponent with unproven UFC wrestling credentials.