Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Kopylov's superior form (4-1 with 2 KOs) contrasts sharply with Costa's 1-4 slide. Despite Costa's volume edge (6.22 vs 4.33 SLPM), Kopylov's better defense (58% vs 49%), superior takedown defense (87% vs 80%), and southpaw stance advantage are decisive. Costa's -0.34 strike differential and poor recent durability make him vulnerable to Kopylov's power.

Costa brings superior power, higher striking volume, and a proven record against elite competition. While Kopylov is defensively sound and mixes in takedowns more often, Costa's pressure, physicality, and finishing ability are likely to overwhelm Kopylov in extended exchanges. Kopylov's takedown game is unlikely to be a major factor given Costa's stout 80% takedown defense.