Back
WINNER
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3MiddleweightMain card
Paulo
Costa
6-4UFC
VS
Roman
Kopylov
6-3UFC
Final: Paulo Costa by U-DEC
Who wins
Costa winsevenKopylov wins
Claude 62% Kopylov
Elo 56% Costa
GPT 66% Costa
Claude
62%
Kopylov
GPT
66%
Costa
Elo
56%
Costa
1606 vs 1564
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'1"
Height
6'0"
72"
Reach
75"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6.22
Landed / min
4.74
6.56
Absorbed / minlower better
5.08
58%
Strike accuracy
50%
49%
Strike defense
53%
0.36
Takedowns / 15
1.02
75%
TD accuracy
42%
80%
TD defense
87%
0.0
Subs / 15
n/a
How it ends
45%KO/TKO
Claude calls KO/TKO, Round 2
KO/TKO 45%Submission 10%Decision 45%
58%KO/TKO
GPT calls KO/TKO
KO/TKO 58%Submission 2%Decision 40%
Formnewest first
Paulo Costa517 days out
L
Robert Whittaker
U-DEC · 2024-02-17
L
Sean Strickland
S-DEC · 2024-01-01
W
Luke Rockhold
U-DEC · 2022-08-20
L
Marvin Vettori
U-DEC · 2021-10-23
L
Israel Adesanya
KO/TKO · 2020-09-26
Roman Kopylov188 days out
W
Chris Curtis
KO/TKO Kick · 2025-01-11
L
Anthony Hernandez
SUB · 2024-02-17
W
Cesar Almeida
S-DEC · 2024-01-01
W
Josh Fremd
KO/TKO · 2023-09-16
W
Claudio Ribeiro
KO/TKO · 2023-07-29
Why
Claude
Roman Kopylov
62% · KO/TKO
- Kopylov's 58% striking defense vs Costa's poor 49% defense with negative differential
- 4-1 recent form with 2 KOs vs Costa's 1-4 downward spiral
- 87% takedown defense neutralizes Costa's wrestling, forcing striking exchanges
- 3-inch reach advantage from southpaw stance against orthodox Costa
Write-up
Kopylov's superior form (4-1 with 2 KOs) contrasts sharply with Costa's 1-4 slide. Despite Costa's volume edge (6.22 vs 4.33 SLPM), Kopylov's better defense (58% vs 49%), superior takedown defense (87% vs 80%), and southpaw stance advantage are decisive. Costa's -0.34 strike differential and poor recent durability make him vulnerable to Kopylov's power.
GPT
Paulo Costa
66% · KO/TKO
- Costa's superior striking volume and power
- Kopylov's lower output and less proven durability at elite level
- Costa's strong takedown defense neutralizing Kopylov's grappling attempts
Write-up
Costa brings superior power, higher striking volume, and a proven record against elite competition. While Kopylov is defensively sound and mixes in takedowns more often, Costa's pressure, physicality, and finishing ability are likely to overwhelm Kopylov in extended exchanges. Kopylov's takedown game is unlikely to be a major factor given Costa's stout 80% takedown defense.