Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Spann's move to heavyweight presents opportunities against Brzeski's poor 36% TD defense and 16.7% win rate. Spann's 1.7 sub average and recent back-to-back submission wins showcase his grappling threat. Brzeski's 1-5 UFC record with 3 KO losses indicates durability issues, while his striking volume (4.9 SLPM) won't compensate for his defensive liabilities. The 3-inch reach advantage and superior athleticism favor Spann's opportunistic style.

Spann's grappling and submission rate are substantially higher than Brzeski's, while Brzeski's takedown defense is notably weak (36%). Spann is likely to exploit this defensive gap given his 1.7 submissions per fight and willingness to grapple. Although Brzeski holds a striking volume and accuracy edge, Spann has faced and finished higher-level opposition, and his physicality should translate if he grapples proactively.