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Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira

Bantamweight · Prelims · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3

FINAL: Vinicius Oliveira by U-DEC
Kyler Phillips
Kyler Phillips
Age 30 · Elo 1547
LWWWL
448 days since last fight
vs
Vinicius Oliveira
Vinicius Oliveira
Age 29 · Elo 1565
WWW
167 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Kyler PhillipsVinicius Oliveira
Claude Claude: Kyler Phillips 32% Claude: Vinicius Oliveira 68% 32% 68% GPT GPT: Kyler Phillips 62% GPT: Vinicius Oliveira 38% 62% 38% Elo Elo: Kyler Phillips 47% Elo: Vinicius Oliveira 53% 47% 53%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Kyler PhillipsVinicius Oliveira
Strikes landed / min Kyler Phillips Strikes landed / min: 5.28 5.28 Vinicius Oliveira Strikes landed / min: 5.87 5.87 Strikes absorbed / min Kyler Phillips Strikes absorbed / min: 3.47 3.47 Vinicius Oliveira Strikes absorbed / min: 2.87 2.87 Striking accuracy Kyler Phillips Striking accuracy: 44% 44% Vinicius Oliveira Striking accuracy: 43% 43% Striking defense Kyler Phillips Striking defense: 60% 60% Vinicius Oliveira Striking defense: 53% 53% Takedowns / 15 min Kyler Phillips Takedowns / 15 min: 2.63 2.63 Vinicius Oliveira Takedowns / 15 min: 1.38 1.38 Takedown defense Kyler Phillips Takedown defense: 75% 75% Vinicius Oliveira Takedown defense: 68% 68% Sub attempts / 15 min Kyler Phillips Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.4 0.4 Vinicius Oliveira Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 45% 45% Claude: Submission 10% 10% Claude: Decision 45% 45%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 18% 18% GPT: Submission 12% 12% GPT: Decision 70% 70%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Vinicius Oliveira by KO/TKO, 68% confidence

Oliveira enters on a perfect 3-0 UFC streak with momentum and finishing ability, while Phillips has dropped 2 straight. Oliveira's superior striking differential (3.0 vs 1.81) and recent KO victory suggest he can exploit Phillips' declining chin. Phillips' wrestling advantage is mitigated by Oliveira's improving takedown defense and dangerous counter-striking.

GPT
Kyler Phillips by Decision, 62% confidence

Kyler Phillips combines strong striking defense (60%) and higher takedown output (2.63 per fight) with a well-rounded, athletic style. Oliveira is more aggressive offensively (higher SLpM, greater striking differential), but absorbs more strikes and has less reliable defensive metrics. Phillips' wrestling and ability to mix stances should allow him to control the fight pace and score on the judges' cards.