Francisco Prado vs Nikolay Veretennikov

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Prado's youth advantage (22 vs 35) and superior striking accuracy (41% vs 59% but with better defense at 52% vs 54%) should allow him to outwork Veretennikov. Moving up from lightweight where he showed knockout power, Prado's 4.58 SLPM significantly outpaces Veretennikov's 3.4. Veretennikov is on a two-fight losing streak via split decision, suggesting close fights but declining performance.

Veretennikov's superior striking accuracy (59% vs 41%), positive striking differential, and notable physical advantages (6-inch reach, 1-inch height) suggest he will control the range and pace. Prado absorbs more strikes than he lands, has a negative strike differential, and struggles defensively (52% striking defense, 25% takedown defense), while neither fighter presents a grappling threat. Expect Veretennikov to outpoint Prado with cleaner, more effective strikes.