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WINNER
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3LightweightMain card
Max
Holloway
22-7UFC
VS
Dustin
Poirier
22-9UFC
Final: Max Holloway by U-DEC
Who wins
Holloway winsevenPoirier wins
Elo 57% Holloway
GPT 65% Holloway
Claude 68% Holloway
Claude
68%
Holloway
GPT
65%
Holloway
Elo
57%
Holloway
1691 vs 1644
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'11"
Height
5'9"
69"
Reach
72"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
7.17
Landed / min
5.30
4.72
Absorbed / minlower better
4.33
48%
Strike accuracy
50%
59%
Strike defense
52%
0.25
Takedowns / 15
1.24
53%
TD accuracy
36%
84%
TD defense
64%
0.3
Subs / 15
1.3
How it ends
70%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 25%Submission 5%Decision 70%
75%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 18%Submission 7%Decision 75%
Formnewest first
Max Holloway462 days out
W
Justin Gaethje
KO/TKO · 2024-04-13
W
Chan Sung Jung
KO/TKO · 2023-08-26
W
Arnold Allen
U-DEC · 2023-04-15
L
Alexander Volkanovski
U-DEC · 2022-07-02
W
Yair Rodriguez
U-DEC · 2021-11-13
Dustin Poirier496 days out
W
Benoit Saint Denis
KO/TKO · 2024-03-09
L
Islam Makhachev
SUB · 2024-01-01
L
Justin Gaethje
KO/TKO · 2023-07-29
W
Michael Chandler
SUB · 2022-11-12
L
Charles Oliveira
SUB · 2021-12-11
Why
Claude
Max Holloway
68% · Decision
- Volume differential of +1.87 strikes per minute with superior 59% striking defense
- 6-1 record vs common opponents compared to Poirier's 3-4, including both beating Gaethje by KO
- Strong upward trend (4-1 last 5) vs Poirier's mixed form (2-3 with 2 submission losses)
- Better cardio shown in 5-round wars, averaging 236 days between fights vs Poirier's 163
Write-up
Holloway's superior volume (7.17 SLPM vs 5.3), better striking defense (59% vs 52%), and dominant 6-1 record against common opponents gives him the edge. His recent KO of Gaethje at 155 proves his power carries up, while Poirier's 2-3 recent form with submission losses shows vulnerability. Max's 3-inch reach disadvantage is mitigated by his footwork and 1.87 volume differential advantage.
GPT
Max Holloway
65% · Decision
- Holloway's higher significant strikes landed per minute (7.17 vs 5.3)
- Better striking differential and defense (2.45 vs 0.97; 59% vs 52%)
- Superior takedown defense (84% vs 64%)
Write-up
Holloway's superior striking volume, accuracy, and defensive metrics give him the edge in a high-paced, competitive fight. Poirier's grappling and power are threats, but Holloway's strong takedown defense and output are likely to sway the judges over five rounds.