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Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier

Lightweight · Main card · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3

FINAL: Max Holloway by U-DEC
Max Holloway
Max Holloway
Age 33 · Elo 1691
WWWLW
462 days since last fight
vs
Dustin Poirier
Dustin Poirier
Age 36 · Elo 1644
WLLWL
496 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Max HollowayDustin Poirier
Claude Claude: Max Holloway 68% Claude: Dustin Poirier 32% 68% 32% GPT GPT: Max Holloway 65% GPT: Dustin Poirier 35% 65% 35% Elo Elo: Max Holloway 57% Elo: Dustin Poirier 43% 57% 43%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Max HollowayDustin Poirier
Strikes landed / min Max Holloway Strikes landed / min: 7.17 7.17 Dustin Poirier Strikes landed / min: 5.30 5.30 Strikes absorbed / min Max Holloway Strikes absorbed / min: 4.72 4.72 Dustin Poirier Strikes absorbed / min: 4.33 4.33 Striking accuracy Max Holloway Striking accuracy: 48% 48% Dustin Poirier Striking accuracy: 50% 50% Striking defense Max Holloway Striking defense: 59% 59% Dustin Poirier Striking defense: 52% 52% Takedowns / 15 min Max Holloway Takedowns / 15 min: 0.25 0.25 Dustin Poirier Takedowns / 15 min: 1.24 1.24 Takedown defense Max Holloway Takedown defense: 84% 84% Dustin Poirier Takedown defense: 64% 64% Sub attempts / 15 min Max Holloway Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3 Dustin Poirier Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.3 1.3

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 5% Claude: Decision 70% 70%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 18% 18% GPT: Submission 7% GPT: Decision 75% 75%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Max Holloway by Decision, 68% confidence

Holloway's superior volume (7.17 SLPM vs 5.3), better striking defense (59% vs 52%), and dominant 6-1 record against common opponents gives him the edge. His recent KO of Gaethje at 155 proves his power carries up, while Poirier's 2-3 recent form with submission losses shows vulnerability. Max's 3-inch reach disadvantage is mitigated by his footwork and 1.87 volume differential advantage.

GPT
Max Holloway by Decision, 65% confidence

Holloway's superior striking volume, accuracy, and defensive metrics give him the edge in a high-paced, competitive fight. Poirier's grappling and power are threats, but Holloway's strong takedown defense and output are likely to sway the judges over five rounds.