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WINNER
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3LightweightPrelims
Michael
Johnson
15-15UFC
VS
Daniel
Zellhuber
3-2UFC
Final: Michael Johnson by U-DEC
Who wins
Johnson winsevenZellhuber wins
Claude 72% Zellhuber
GPT 70% Zellhuber
Elo 51% Johnson
Claude
72%
Zellhuber
GPT
70%
Zellhuber
Elo
51%
Johnson
1520 vs 1510
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'10"
Height
6'1"
73"
Reach
77"
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
4.27
Landed / min
5.45
3.83
Absorbed / minlower better
6.17
39%
Strike accuracy
38%
57%
Strike defense
54%
0.62
Takedowns / 15
0.14
41%
TD accuracy
25%
81%
TD defense
81%
n/a
Subs / 15
0.3
How it ends
70%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 25%Submission 5%Decision 70%
75%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 18%Submission 7%Decision 75%
Formnewest first
Michael Johnson216 days out
W
Ottman Azaitar
KO/TKO Punch · 2024-12-14
W
Darrius Flowers
U-DEC · 2024-02-10
L
Diego Ferreira
KO/TKO · 2023-05-20
W
Marc Diakiese
U-DEC · 2022-12-03
L
Jamie Mullarkey
S-DEC · 2022-07-09
Daniel Zellhuber476 days out
L
Esteban Ribovics
S-DEC · 2024-03-30
W
Francisco Prado
U-DEC · 2024-02-24
W
Christos Giagos
SUB · 2023-09-16
W
Lando Vannata
U-DEC · 2023-04-15
L
Trey Ogden
U-DEC · 2022-09-17
Why
Claude
Daniel Zellhuber
72% · Decision
- Zellhuber averages 6.26 significant strikes per minute vs Johnson's 4.27, a 47% volume advantage
- 4-inch reach advantage allows Zellhuber to control distance against the shorter southpaw
- Johnson is 38 years old with recent KO loss, while Zellhuber is 25 and improving despite recent setbacks
- Zellhuber's 94% TDD vs Johnson's 41% TD accuracy suggests grappling won't be a factor
Write-up
Zellhuber's significant physical advantages (3-inch height, 4-inch reach) combined with superior striking volume (6.26 vs 4.27 SLPM) and better recent form create a difficult matchup for the aging Johnson. While Johnson has veteran experience, Zellhuber's 94% takedown defense neutralizes Johnson's wrestling, forcing a striking battle where the younger fighter's range and output should dominate.
GPT
Daniel Zellhuber
70% · Decision
- Zellhuber's +2.0 higher strikes landed per minute (6.26 vs 4.27)
- Physical advantages: reach (+4 inches) and height (+1 inch)
- Elite takedown defense (94%) negates Johnson's wrestling threat
Write-up
Zellhuber's significant edge in striking volume, physical advantages (height and reach), and elite takedown defense make him likely to outpoint Johnson over three rounds. Johnson's experience, speed, and defense should keep him competitive and limit Zellhuber's finishing chances, but Zellhuber's output and youth tip the balance.