Lightweight · Prelims · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
FINAL: Michael Johnson by U-DEC
Michael Johnson
Age 39 · Elo 1520
WWLWL
216 days since last fight
vs
Daniel Zellhuber
Age 26 · Elo 1510
LWWWL
476 days since last fight
Who wins, by source
Michael JohnsonDaniel Zellhuber
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Michael JohnsonDaniel Zellhuber
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
Claude
Daniel Zellhuber by Decision, 72% confidence
Zellhuber's significant physical advantages (3-inch height, 4-inch reach) combined with superior striking volume (6.26 vs 4.27 SLPM) and better recent form create a difficult matchup for the aging Johnson. While Johnson has veteran experience, Zellhuber's 94% takedown defense neutralizes Johnson's wrestling, forcing a striking battle where the younger fighter's range and output should dominate.
GPT
Daniel Zellhuber by Decision, 70% confidence
Zellhuber's significant edge in striking volume, physical advantages (height and reach), and elite takedown defense make him likely to outpoint Johnson over three rounds. Johnson's experience, speed, and defense should keep him competitive and limit Zellhuber's finishing chances, but Zellhuber's output and youth tip the balance.