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Michael Johnson vs Daniel Zellhuber

Lightweight · Prelims · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3

FINAL: Michael Johnson by U-DEC
Michael Johnson
Michael Johnson
Age 39 · Elo 1520
WWLWL
216 days since last fight
vs
Daniel Zellhuber
Daniel Zellhuber
Age 26 · Elo 1510
LWWWL
476 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Michael JohnsonDaniel Zellhuber
Claude Claude: Michael Johnson 28% Claude: Daniel Zellhuber 72% 28% 72% GPT GPT: Michael Johnson 30% GPT: Daniel Zellhuber 70% 30% 70% Elo Elo: Michael Johnson 51% Elo: Daniel Zellhuber 49% 51% 49%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Michael JohnsonDaniel Zellhuber
Strikes landed / min Michael Johnson Strikes landed / min: 4.27 4.27 Daniel Zellhuber Strikes landed / min: 5.45 5.45 Strikes absorbed / min Michael Johnson Strikes absorbed / min: 3.83 3.83 Daniel Zellhuber Strikes absorbed / min: 6.17 6.17 Striking accuracy Michael Johnson Striking accuracy: 39% 39% Daniel Zellhuber Striking accuracy: 38% 38% Striking defense Michael Johnson Striking defense: 57% 57% Daniel Zellhuber Striking defense: 54% 54% Takedowns / 15 min Michael Johnson Takedowns / 15 min: 0.62 0.62 Daniel Zellhuber Takedowns / 15 min: 0.14 0.14 Takedown defense Michael Johnson Takedown defense: 81% 81% Daniel Zellhuber Takedown defense: 81% 81% Sub attempts / 15 min Michael Johnson Sub attempts / 15 min: no data - Daniel Zellhuber Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 5% Claude: Decision 70% 70%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 18% 18% GPT: Submission 7% GPT: Decision 75% 75%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Daniel Zellhuber by Decision, 72% confidence

Zellhuber's significant physical advantages (3-inch height, 4-inch reach) combined with superior striking volume (6.26 vs 4.27 SLPM) and better recent form create a difficult matchup for the aging Johnson. While Johnson has veteran experience, Zellhuber's 94% takedown defense neutralizes Johnson's wrestling, forcing a striking battle where the younger fighter's range and output should dominate.

GPT
Daniel Zellhuber by Decision, 70% confidence

Zellhuber's significant edge in striking volume, physical advantages (height and reach), and elite takedown defense make him likely to outpoint Johnson over three rounds. Johnson's experience, speed, and defense should keep him competitive and limit Zellhuber's finishing chances, but Zellhuber's output and youth tip the balance.