Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Rodriguez's massive volume advantage (7.5 vs 4.24 SLPM) and superior defense (58% vs 50%) overwhelm Holland's physical advantages. Holland's 2-3 recent form with 2 KO losses shows chin deterioration, while Rodriguez is 2-2 but competitive. The 3.26 strike differential favoring Rodriguez and Holland's frequent weight class changes (3 in last 5 fights) indicate instability.

Rodriguez's higher striking output (7.5 SLPM) and superior striking defense (58%) give him a statistical edge in a likely stand-up battle. Holland's reach advantage (7 inches) and submission threat provide danger, but Rodriguez absorbs more strikes yet consistently outlands opponents. Both have limited offensive wrestling and similar takedown defenses, suggesting a predominantly striking match where Rodriguez's volume and accuracy should win rounds.