Carli Judice vs Nicolle Caliari

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup where Caliari's extreme grappling output (6.32 takedowns per fight, 6.3 submissions per fight) presents a nightmare scenario for Judice. Despite Judice's 70% takedown defense, Caliari's 66% takedown accuracy and relentless pressure will eventually break through. Judice's southpaw stance and 6-inch reach advantage won't matter once Caliari closes distance. The striking differential heavily favors Judice (11.23 vs 1.89 SLPM), but Caliari's 0% takedown defense suggests she's rarely in positions where opponents can shoot on her - she's always the aggressor.

Caliari's grappling metrics are elite, with 6.32 takedowns and 6.3 submissions attempted per fight, combined with a 66% takedown accuracy. Judice's 70% takedown defense is solid but untested against such volume, and her striking defense (52%) is vulnerable to takedown setups. Judice has a clear striking advantage in volume and accuracy, but Caliari's path to victory via wrestling and submissions is statistically robust given Judice's lack of submission offense and potentially untested defensive grappling.