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Brunno Ferreira vs Jackson McVey

Middleweight · Prelims · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3

FINAL: Brunno Ferreira by SUB Armbar
Brunno Ferreira
Brunno Ferreira
Age 32 · Elo 1578
WWWLW
132 days since last fight
vs
Jackson McVey
Jackson McVey
Age 26 · Elo 1507*
No UFC fights on record

Who wins, by source

Brunno FerreiraJackson McVey
Claude Claude: Brunno Ferreira 78% Claude: Jackson McVey 22% 78% 22% GPT GPT: Brunno Ferreira 78% GPT: Jackson McVey 22% 78% 22% Elo Elo: Brunno Ferreira 60% Elo: Jackson McVey 40% 60% 40%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Brunno FerreiraJackson McVey
Strikes landed / min Brunno Ferreira Strikes landed / min: 3.27 3.27 Jackson McVey Strikes landed / min: 6.51 6.51 Strikes absorbed / min Brunno Ferreira Strikes absorbed / min: 3.75 3.75 Jackson McVey Strikes absorbed / min: 3.37 3.37 Striking accuracy Brunno Ferreira Striking accuracy: 49% 49% Jackson McVey Striking accuracy: 69% 69% Striking defense Brunno Ferreira Striking defense: 51% 51% Jackson McVey Striking defense: 23% 23% Takedowns / 15 min Brunno Ferreira Takedowns / 15 min: 1.00 1.00 Jackson McVey Takedowns / 15 min: no data - Takedown defense Brunno Ferreira Takedown defense: 50% 50% Jackson McVey Takedown defense: 0% 0% Sub attempts / 15 min Brunno Ferreira Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.6 0.6 Jackson McVey Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.2 1.2

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 70% 70% Claude: Submission 5% Claude: Decision 25% 25%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 65% 65% GPT: Submission 5% GPT: Decision 30% 30%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Brunno Ferreira by KO/TKO, 78% confidence

Ferreira's 4-1 record with 4 KO/TKO finishes demonstrates elite power at middleweight. McVey's UFC debut with no recorded statistics creates massive uncertainty. Ferreira's 4.99 SLPM and 54% accuracy indicate aggressive, effective striking. His recent 3-fight KO streak shows peak form, while McVey's complete lack of UFC data suggests experience disadvantage. Orthodox vs southpaw creates openings for Ferreira's power shots.

GPT
Brunno Ferreira by KO/TKO, 78% confidence

Brunno Ferreira demonstrates clear statistical superiority in striking volume, accuracy, and defensive metrics, with significant UFC experience. Jackson McVey lacks any recorded UFC-level data, indicating either debut status or insufficient sample size, making his competitive level a major unknown. Ferreira's aggressive style, high strike output, and proven finishing ability against established opposition make him a strong favorite in this matchup.