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Adam Fugitt vs Islam Dulatov

Welterweight · Prelims · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3

FINAL: Islam Dulatov by KO/TKO Punch
Adam Fugitt
Adam Fugitt
Age 36 · Elo 1479
WLWL
552 days since last fight
vs
Islam Dulatov
Islam Dulatov
Age 26 · Elo 1524*
No UFC fights on record

Who wins, by source

Adam FugittIslam Dulatov
Claude Claude: Adam Fugitt 32% Claude: Islam Dulatov 68% 32% 68% GPT GPT: Adam Fugitt 23% GPT: Islam Dulatov 77% 23% 77% Elo Elo: Adam Fugitt 44% Elo: Islam Dulatov 56% 44% 56%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Adam FugittIslam Dulatov
Strikes landed / min Adam Fugitt Strikes landed / min: 4.88 4.88 Islam Dulatov Strikes landed / min: 14.27 14.27 Strikes absorbed / min Adam Fugitt Strikes absorbed / min: 5.33 5.33 Islam Dulatov Strikes absorbed / min: 5.49 5.49 Striking accuracy Adam Fugitt Striking accuracy: 46% 46% Islam Dulatov Striking accuracy: 56% 56% Striking defense Adam Fugitt Striking defense: 51% 51% Islam Dulatov Striking defense: 51% 51% Takedowns / 15 min Adam Fugitt Takedowns / 15 min: 1.63 1.63 Islam Dulatov Takedowns / 15 min: 5.49 5.49 Takedown defense Adam Fugitt Takedown defense: 50% 50% Islam Dulatov Takedown defense: 0% 0% Sub attempts / 15 min Adam Fugitt Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0 Islam Dulatov Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 22% 22% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 63% 63%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 25% 25% GPT: Submission 5% GPT: Decision 70% 70%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Islam Dulatov by Decision, 68% confidence

Dulatov's extraordinary 14.27 SLPM triples Fugitt's 4.72 output, creating overwhelming pressure. His 100% takedown accuracy (5.49 per fight) against Fugitt's 50% TDD suggests wrestling control. While Fugitt has UFC experience (3-2 record), Dulatov's volume-heavy approach and 8.78 striking differential should overwhelm the aging Fugitt (36 years old). Dulatov's youth (26) provides cardio advantages for maintaining his extreme pace.

GPT
Islam Dulatov by Decision, 77% confidence

Dulatov's striking volume (14.27 SLpM) and accuracy (56%) are significantly higher than Fugitt's, while Dulatov also boasts a perfect takedown accuracy and much higher takedown output. Fugitt's middling defensive metrics and lower offensive output suggest he will struggle to keep pace. However, Dulatov's defensive vulnerabilities (5.49 SApM, 0% TDDef) may prevent a finish, making a clear decision likely.