Fight Genie logo Fight Genie
Back to the card

Viviane Araujo vs Tracy Cortez

Women's Flyweight · Prelims · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira

FINAL: Tracy Cortez by U-DEC
Viviane Araujo
Viviane Araujo
Age 38 · Elo 1538
WLWLL
223 days since last fight
vs
Tracy Cortez
Tracy Cortez
Age 31 · Elo 1567
LWWWW
510 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Viviane AraujoTracy Cortez
Claude Claude: Viviane Araujo 37% Claude: Tracy Cortez 63% 37% 63% GPT GPT: Viviane Araujo 40% GPT: Tracy Cortez 60% 40% 60% Elo Elo: Viviane Araujo 46% Elo: Tracy Cortez 54% 46% 54%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Viviane AraujoTracy Cortez
Strikes landed / min Viviane Araujo Strikes landed / min: 4.11 4.11 Tracy Cortez Strikes landed / min: 3.72 3.72 Strikes absorbed / min Viviane Araujo Strikes absorbed / min: 4.96 4.96 Tracy Cortez Strikes absorbed / min: 3.02 3.02 Striking accuracy Viviane Araujo Striking accuracy: 47% 47% Tracy Cortez Striking accuracy: 47% 47% Striking defense Viviane Araujo Striking defense: 56% 56% Tracy Cortez Striking defense: 57% 57% Takedowns / 15 min Viviane Araujo Takedowns / 15 min: 1.76 1.76 Tracy Cortez Takedowns / 15 min: 2.09 2.09 Takedown defense Viviane Araujo Takedown defense: 78% 78% Tracy Cortez Takedown defense: 62% 62% Sub attempts / 15 min Viviane Araujo Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.6 0.6 Tracy Cortez Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 15% 15% Claude: Submission 10% 10% Claude: Decision 75% 75%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 20% 20% GPT: Submission 10% 10% GPT: Decision 70% 70%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Tracy Cortez by Decision, 63% confidence

Cortez presents a more well-rounded skillset with superior striking differential (+0.70 vs -0.85) and comparable takedown ability. While Araujo has better takedown defense (78% vs 62%), Cortez's pressure-based approach and cleaner striking should allow her to control the pace. Araujo's recent form shows improvement with a win in her last bout, but Cortez's technical striking and ability to mix in takedowns will likely frustrate Araujo's attempts to establish her offense. Cortez's defensive striking (57% vs 56%) gives her a slight edge in exchanges, and her more efficient striking will accumulate points over three rounds.

GPT
Tracy Cortez by Decision, 60% confidence

Tracy Cortez has a slightly higher win rate and better striking differential. Although Viviane Araujo has a higher takedown defense, Cortez's takedown average per fight is superior, which may allow her to control the fight and score points with the judges.