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UFC 317: Topuria vs. OliveiraWomen's FlyweightPrelims
Viviane Araujo
Viviane
Araujo
7-5UFC
38 yrsElo 1538
VS
Tracy CortezWINNER
Tracy
Cortez
5-1UFC
31 yrsElo 1567
Final: Tracy Cortez by U-DEC
Who wins
Claude
63%
Cortez
GPT
60%
Cortez
Elo
54%
Cortez
1538 vs 1567
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'4" Height 5'5"
68" Reach 65"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
4.11 Landed / min 3.72
4.96 Absorbed / minlower better 3.02
47% Strike accuracy 47%
56% Strike defense 57%
1.76 Takedowns / 15 2.09
40% TD accuracy 45%
78% TD defense 62%
0.6 Subs / 15 0.3
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 15%Claude: Submission 10%Claude: Decision 75%
75%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 15%Submission 10%Decision 75%
GPT: KO/TKO 20%GPT: Submission 10%GPT: Decision 70%
70%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 20%Submission 10%Decision 70%
Formnewest first
Viviane Araujo223 days out
W
Karine Silva
· 2024-11-16
L
Natalia Silva
U-DEC · 2024-02-03
W
Jennifer Maia
U-DEC · 2023-10-14
L
Amanda Ribas
U-DEC · 2023-03-04
L
Alexa Grasso
U-DEC · 2022-10-15
Tracy Cortez510 days out
L
Rose Namajunas
U-DEC · 2024-02-03
W
Jasmine Jasudavicius
U-DEC · 2023-09-16
W
Melissa Gatto
U-DEC · 2022-05-07
W
Justine Kish
S-DEC · 2021-04-17
W
Stephanie Egger
U-DEC · 2020-10-10
Why
Claude
Tracy Cortez
63% · Decision
  • Cortez's positive striking differential (+0.70) vs Araujo's negative differential (-0.85)
  • Comparable takedown averages (2.09 vs 1.76) but Cortez has higher accuracy (45% vs 40%)
  • Araujo's superior takedown defense (78% vs 62%) will keep the fight primarily standing
  • Cortez's more consistent striking efficiency (47% accuracy with less volume) will be the difference-maker
Write-up

Cortez presents a more well-rounded skillset with superior striking differential (+0.70 vs -0.85) and comparable takedown ability. While Araujo has better takedown defense (78% vs 62%), Cortez's pressure-based approach and cleaner striking should allow her to control the pace. Araujo's recent form shows improvement with a win in her last bout, but Cortez's technical striking and ability to mix in takedowns will likely frustrate Araujo's attempts to establish her offense. Cortez's defensive striking (57% vs 56%) gives her a slight edge in exchanges, and her more efficient striking will accumulate points over three rounds.

GPT
Tracy Cortez
60% · Decision
  • Striking differential
  • Takedown average
  • Win rate
Write-up

Tracy Cortez has a slightly higher win rate and better striking differential. Although Viviane Araujo has a higher takedown defense, Cortez's takedown average per fight is superior, which may allow her to control the fight and score points with the judges.