Lightweight · Prelims · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
FINAL: Terrance McKinney by SUB Guillotine Choke
Terrance McKinney
Age 30 · Elo 1527
WLWWL
146 days since last fight
vs
Viacheslav Borshchev
Age 33 · Elo 1467
LWLLW
139 days since last fight
Who wins, by source
Terrance McKinneyViacheslav Borshchev
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Terrance McKinneyViacheslav Borshchev
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
Claude
Terrance McKinney by Submission, 68% confidence
This matchup heavily favors McKinney's grappling against Borshchev's striking-heavy approach. McKinney averages 3.45 takedowns per fight with a 36% accuracy rate, while Borshchev has zero recorded takedowns and a concerning 35% takedown defense. The stylistic clash is significant - McKinney's explosive first-round finishing ability combined with Borshchev's grappling vulnerability creates a clear path to victory. While Borshchev is the superior striker (5.4 SLPM vs 4.53, 53% accuracy vs 50%), McKinney's 4-inch reach advantage and switch stance will help bridge the striking gap until he can secure a takedown. Their common opponent (Nazim Sadykhov) exposed Borshchev's grappling weaknesses, which McKinney is better positioned to exploit.
GPT
Terrance McKinney by Submission, 65% confidence
Given the significant difference in takedown defense, McKinney is likely to control the fight on the ground and potentially secure a submission win.