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UFC 317: Topuria vs. OliveiraLightweightPrelims
Terrance McKinneyWINNER
Terrance
McKinney
6-4UFC
30 yrsElo 1527
VS
Viacheslav Borshchev
Viacheslav
Borshchev
3-5UFC
33 yrsElo 1467
Final: Terrance McKinney by SUB Guillotine Choke
Who wins
Claude
68%
McKinney
GPT
65%
McKinney
Elo
59%
McKinney
1527 vs 1467
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'10" Height 5'11"
73" Reach 69"
Switch Stance Orthodox
4.53 Landed / min 5.40
2.63 Absorbed / minlower better 4.80
50% Strike accuracy 53%
45% Strike defense 56%
3.45 Takedowns / 15 0.00
36% TD accuracy 0%
85% TD defense 35%
1.0 Subs / 15 0.0
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 25%Claude: Submission 45%Claude: Decision 30%
45%Submission
Claude calls Submission, Round 1
KO/TKO 25%Submission 45%Decision 30%
GPT: KO/TKO 15%GPT: Submission 60%GPT: Decision 25%
60%Submission
GPT calls Submission
KO/TKO 15%Submission 60%Decision 25%
Formnewest first
Terrance McKinney146 days out
W
Damir Hadzovic
KO/TKO Punches · 2025-02-01
L
Esteban Ribovics
KO/TKO · 2023-12-16
W
Brendon Marotte
KO/TKO · 2023-10-14
W
Mike Breeden
KO/TKO · 2023-08-12
L
Nazim Sadykhov
SUB · 2023-07-15
Viacheslav Borshchev139 days out
L
Tom Nolan
U-DEC · 2025-02-08
W
James Llontop
S-DEC · 2024-03-16
L
Chase Hooper
SUB · 2023-12-16
L
Nazim Sadykhov
M-DEC · 2023-11-11
W
Maheshate
KO/TKO · 2023-05-20
Why
Claude
Terrance McKinney
68% · Submission
  • Borshchev's 35% takedown defense is a critical vulnerability against McKinney's 3.45 takedowns per fight
  • McKinney's 1.0 submissions per fight advantage against a fighter with no submission offense
  • McKinney's 4-inch reach advantage negates some of Borshchev's striking superiority
  • McKinney's explosive first-round finishing ability (7 first-round finishes in his career)
Write-up

This matchup heavily favors McKinney's grappling against Borshchev's striking-heavy approach. McKinney averages 3.45 takedowns per fight with a 36% accuracy rate, while Borshchev has zero recorded takedowns and a concerning 35% takedown defense. The stylistic clash is significant - McKinney's explosive first-round finishing ability combined with Borshchev's grappling vulnerability creates a clear path to victory. While Borshchev is the superior striker (5.4 SLPM vs 4.53, 53% accuracy vs 50%), McKinney's 4-inch reach advantage and switch stance will help bridge the striking gap until he can secure a takedown. Their common opponent (Nazim Sadykhov) exposed Borshchev's grappling weaknesses, which McKinney is better positioned to exploit.

GPT
Terrance McKinney
65% · Submission
  • Takedown Defense
  • Striking Defense
  • Takedown Accuracy
Write-up

Given the significant difference in takedown defense, McKinney is likely to control the fight on the ground and potentially secure a submission win.