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Terrance McKinney vs Viacheslav Borshchev

Lightweight · Prelims · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira

FINAL: Terrance McKinney by SUB Guillotine Choke
Terrance McKinney
Terrance McKinney
Age 30 · Elo 1527
WLWWL
146 days since last fight
vs
Viacheslav Borshchev
Viacheslav Borshchev
Age 33 · Elo 1467
LWLLW
139 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Terrance McKinneyViacheslav Borshchev
Claude Claude: Terrance McKinney 68% Claude: Viacheslav Borshchev 32% 68% 32% GPT GPT: Terrance McKinney 65% GPT: Viacheslav Borshchev 35% 65% 35% Elo Elo: Terrance McKinney 59% Elo: Viacheslav Borshchev 41% 59% 41%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Terrance McKinneyViacheslav Borshchev
Strikes landed / min Terrance McKinney Strikes landed / min: 4.53 4.53 Viacheslav Borshchev Strikes landed / min: 5.40 5.40 Strikes absorbed / min Terrance McKinney Strikes absorbed / min: 2.63 2.63 Viacheslav Borshchev Strikes absorbed / min: 4.80 4.80 Striking accuracy Terrance McKinney Striking accuracy: 50% 50% Viacheslav Borshchev Striking accuracy: 53% 53% Striking defense Terrance McKinney Striking defense: 45% 45% Viacheslav Borshchev Striking defense: 56% 56% Takedowns / 15 min Terrance McKinney Takedowns / 15 min: 3.45 3.45 Viacheslav Borshchev Takedowns / 15 min: 0.00 0.00 Takedown defense Terrance McKinney Takedown defense: 85% 85% Viacheslav Borshchev Takedown defense: 35% 35% Sub attempts / 15 min Terrance McKinney Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.0 1.0 Viacheslav Borshchev Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 45% 45% Claude: Decision 30% 30%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 15% 15% GPT: Submission 60% 60% GPT: Decision 25% 25%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Terrance McKinney by Submission, 68% confidence

This matchup heavily favors McKinney's grappling against Borshchev's striking-heavy approach. McKinney averages 3.45 takedowns per fight with a 36% accuracy rate, while Borshchev has zero recorded takedowns and a concerning 35% takedown defense. The stylistic clash is significant - McKinney's explosive first-round finishing ability combined with Borshchev's grappling vulnerability creates a clear path to victory. While Borshchev is the superior striker (5.4 SLPM vs 4.53, 53% accuracy vs 50%), McKinney's 4-inch reach advantage and switch stance will help bridge the striking gap until he can secure a takedown. Their common opponent (Nazim Sadykhov) exposed Borshchev's grappling weaknesses, which McKinney is better positioned to exploit.

GPT
Terrance McKinney by Submission, 65% confidence

Given the significant difference in takedown defense, McKinney is likely to control the fight on the ground and potentially secure a submission win.