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UFC 317: Topuria vs. OliveiraWelterweightPrelims
Niko Price
Niko
Price
8-10UFC
35 yrsElo 1493
VS
Jacobe SmithWINNER
Jacobe
Smith
1-0UFC
29 yrsElo 1606
Final: Jacobe Smith by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Who wins
Claude
59%
Smith
GPT
75%
Smith
Elo
66%
Smith
1493 vs 1606
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'0" Height 5'10"
76" Reach 72"
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
5.21 Landed / min 6.95
5.58 Absorbed / minlower better 1.39
42% Strike accuracy 76%
48% Strike defense 54%
1.04 Takedowns / 15 13.26
29% TD accuracy 87%
52% TD defense 0%
0.7 Subs / 15 0.0
Small sample: Jacobe Smith, 1 UFC fight.
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 25%Claude: Submission 15%Claude: Decision 60%
60%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 25%Submission 15%Decision 60%
GPT: KO/TKO 65%GPT: Submission 15%GPT: Decision 20%
65%KO/TKO
GPT calls KO/TKO
KO/TKO 65%Submission 15%Decision 20%
Formnewest first
Niko Price427 days out
L
Themba Gorimbo
U-DEC · 2024-04-27
W
Alex Morono
U-DEC · 2024-01-01
L
Robbie Lawler
KO/TKO · 2023-07-08
L
Phil Rowe
KO/TKO · 2022-12-03
W
Alex Oliveira
U-DEC · 2021-10-02
Jacobe Smith167 days out
W
Preston Parsons
KO/TKO Punch · 2025-01-11
Why
Claude
Jacobe Smith
59% · Decision
  • Smith's exceptional takedown rate (13.26 per fight) against Price's 52% takedown defense
  • Smith's striking accuracy advantage (76% vs 42%) indicates significantly cleaner technique
  • Price's defensive vulnerabilities (48% striking defense, absorbs 5.58 strikes per minute)
  • Smith's southpaw stance creates an additional technical challenge for the orthodox Price
Write-up

Despite Price's significant experience advantage, Smith's statistical profile reveals exceptional efficiency that could translate to UFC success. Smith's striking accuracy (76% vs Price's 42%) and volume (6.95 SLPM vs 5.21) indicate a technical advantage on the feet. More significantly, Smith's wrestling credentials shine through his 13.26 takedowns per fight at 87% accuracy, creating a clear path to control Price, who defends takedowns at just 52%. Price's wild, brawling style leads to defensive vulnerabilities (48% striking defense) that Smith's technical striking can exploit. While Price's experience and durability will make him dangerous throughout, Smith's wrestling control and more efficient striking should secure rounds on the scorecards.

GPT
Jacobe Smith
75% · KO/TKO
  • Striking volume
  • Striking accuracy
  • Takedown average
Write-up

Jacobe Smith has a significant advantage in striking, with a higher striking volume and accuracy than Niko Price. His takedown average is also significantly higher than Price's, suggesting a strong ground game. However, his takedown defense is notably weak, indicating a potential vulnerability.