Fight Genie logo Fight Genie
Back
UFC 317: Topuria vs. OliveiraBantamweightPrelims
Payton TalbottWINNER
Payton
Talbott
3-1UFC
26 yrsElo 1596
VS
Felipe Lima
Felipe
Lima
2-0UFC
27 yrsElo 1548*
Final: Payton Talbott by U-DEC
Who wins
Claude
78%
Talbott
GPT
70%
Talbott
Elo
57%
Talbott
1596 vs 1548
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'10" Height 5'6"
70" Reach 68"
Switch Stance Orthodox
8.38 Landed / min 2.86
3.57 Absorbed / minlower better 2.91
55% Strike accuracy 45%
51% Strike defense 64%
n/a Takedowns / 15 2.18
0% TD accuracy 27%
90% TD defense 85%
0.5 Subs / 15 0.7
Small sample: Felipe Lima, 2 UFC fights.
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 65%Claude: Submission 10%Claude: Decision 25%
65%KO/TKO
Claude calls KO/TKO, Round 2
KO/TKO 65%Submission 10%Decision 25%
GPT: KO/TKO 20%GPT: Submission 10%GPT: Decision 70%
70%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 20%Submission 10%Decision 70%
Formnewest first
Payton Talbott160 days out
L
Raoni Barcelos
U-DEC · 2025-01-18
W
Cameron Saaiman
KO/TKO · 2024-03-23
W
Yanis Ghemmouri
KO/TKO · 2024-01-27
W
Nick Aguirre
SUB · 2023-11-18
Felipe Lima195 days out
W
Miles Johns
U-DEC · 2024-12-14
W
Muhammad Naimov
SUB · 2024-01-20
Why
Claude
Payton Talbott
78% · KO/TKO
  • Talbott's striking volume advantage (+5.09 SLPM differential)
  • Talbott's 90% takedown defense neutralizes Lima's primary path to victory
  • 4-inch height and 2-inch reach advantage for Talbott creates optimal striking distance
  • Talbott's recent form shows 100% finish rate with 3 KO/TKOs in last 4 fights
Write-up

Talbott presents a significant striking advantage with 8.38 SLPM compared to Lima's 3.29, creating a massive +5.09 differential. While Lima has better striking defense (64% vs 51%), Talbott's volume and accuracy (55%) will overwhelm Lima's defenses. Talbott's 90% takedown defense will neutralize Lima's grappling threat (1.33 TDAvg), keeping the fight standing where Talbott has a clear advantage. Talbott's switch stance will create angles that Lima's orthodox stance can't easily counter, and Talbott's 4-inch height advantage (5'10" vs 5'6") and 2-inch reach advantage (70" vs 68") will allow him to maintain optimal striking range. Talbott's recent form shows 3 consecutive KO/TKO victories, demonstrating his finishing power and technical striking improvements.

GPT
Payton Talbott
70% · Decision
  • Striking volume
  • Takedown Defense
  • Striking Accuracy
Write-up

Talbott's superior striking volume and accuracy, coupled with his excellent takedown defense, should give him the edge in this fight. While Lima has a decent takedown game, it is unlikely he will be able to control the fight on the ground given Talbott's defense. The fight will likely go the distance, with Talbott outpointing Lima on the feet.