Payton Talbott vs Felipe Lima

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Talbott presents a significant striking advantage with 8.38 SLPM compared to Lima's 3.29, creating a massive +5.09 differential. While Lima has better striking defense (64% vs 51%), Talbott's volume and accuracy (55%) will overwhelm Lima's defenses. Talbott's 90% takedown defense will neutralize Lima's grappling threat (1.33 TDAvg), keeping the fight standing where Talbott has a clear advantage. Talbott's switch stance will create angles that Lima's orthodox stance can't easily counter, and Talbott's 4-inch height advantage (5'10" vs 5'6") and 2-inch reach advantage (70" vs 68") will allow him to maintain optimal striking range. Talbott's recent form shows 3 consecutive KO/TKO victories, demonstrating his finishing power and technical striking improvements.

Talbott's superior striking volume and accuracy, coupled with his excellent takedown defense, should give him the edge in this fight. While Lima has a decent takedown game, it is unlikely he will be able to control the fight on the ground given Talbott's defense. The fight will likely go the distance, with Talbott outpointing Lima on the feet.