Ilia Topuria vs Charles Oliveira

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Topuria's exceptional striking accuracy (47%) combined with his significant power advantage gives him a clear path to victory against Oliveira's vulnerable defense (49%). While Oliveira possesses a substantial submission threat (2.7 submissions per fight vs Topuria's 1.1), Topuria's elite takedown defense (92%) will likely neutralize Oliveira's grappling entries. Topuria's striking differential (+0.85) compared to Oliveira's (+0.19) indicates he'll land more effectively in exchanges. Oliveira has shown vulnerability to power punchers, and Topuria's perfect 14-0 record with 11 finishes demonstrates his ability to find the knockout against high-level competition. Topuria's defensive striking metrics (64% defense vs Oliveira's 49%) suggest he'll avoid Oliveira's dangerous counters while landing his own power shots.

Topuria has a significantly higher strike defense and takedown defense, which will allow him to mitigate Oliveira's attacks and control the fight pace. His superior striking volume and accuracy could also grant him an edge in the stand-up exchanges.