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UFC 317: Topuria vs. OliveiraFlyweightMain card
Brandon Royval
Brandon
Royval
8-3UFC
32 yrsElo 1571
VS
Joshua VanWINNER
Joshua
Van
7-1UFC
23 yrsElo 1637
Final: Joshua Van by U-DEC
Who wins
Claude
60%
Van
GPT
70%
Van
Elo
59%
Van
1571 vs 1637
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'9" Height 5'5"
68" Reach 65"
Southpaw Stance Orthodox
5.60 Landed / min 8.39
4.24 Absorbed / minlower better 6.09
42% Strike accuracy 53%
42% Strike defense 58%
0.89 Takedowns / 15 1.62
64% TD accuracy 63%
45% TD defense 83%
1.2 Subs / 15 0.0
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 30%Claude: Submission 15%Claude: Decision 55%
55%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 30%Submission 15%Decision 55%
GPT: KO/TKO 60%GPT: Submission 10%GPT: Decision 30%
60%KO/TKO
GPT calls KO/TKO
KO/TKO 60%Submission 10%Decision 30%
Formnewest first
Brandon Royval427 days out
W
Tatsuro Taira
S-DEC · 2024-04-27
W
Tatsuro Taira
S-DEC · 2024-04-20
W
Brandon Moreno
S-DEC · 2024-02-24
L
Alexandre Pantoja
U-DEC · 2023-12-16
W
Matheus Nicolau
KO/TKO · 2023-04-15
Joshua Van21 days out
W
Bruno Silva
KO/TKO Punches · 2025-06-07
W
Rei Tsuruya
U-DEC · 2025-03-08
W
Cody Durden
U-DEC · 2024-12-07
W
Edgar Chairez
U-DEC · 2024-03-30
L
Charles Johnson
KO/TKO · 2024-02-03
Why
Claude
Joshua Van
60% · Decision
  • Van's extraordinary striking volume (8.39 SLPM) nearly doubles Royval's output (4.46 SLPM)
  • Van's superior takedown defense (83%) neutralizes Royval's submission threat
  • Van's striking accuracy (53% vs Royval's 39%) indicates more effective offense
  • Van's youth advantage (22 vs 31) suggests better recovery and cardio for maintaining his high-volume approach
Write-up

Van's extraordinary striking volume (8.39 SLPM vs Royval's 4.46) creates a significant offensive advantage that will be difficult for Royval to overcome. While Royval possesses better striking defense (47% vs Van's 58%), Van's superior takedown defense (83% vs Royval's 45%) will likely neutralize Royval's submission threat (1.2 per fight). Van's striking accuracy (53% vs Royval's 39%) indicates he'll land more effectively in exchanges. Van's youth advantage (22 vs 31) suggests better recovery and cardio for maintaining his high-volume approach. Royval's southpaw stance and 4-inch height advantage (5'9" vs 5'5") will create interesting range dynamics, but Van's reach disadvantage (65" vs 68") is mitigated by his forward pressure and volume. Van's recent performances show rapid improvement, while Royval has been inconsistent against elite competition.

GPT
Joshua Van
70% · KO/TKO
  • Striking volume
  • Striking accuracy
  • Takedown defense
Write-up

Joshua Van has a higher significant strike per minute rate (8.39 vs 4.46) and a higher striking accuracy (53% vs 39%). Additionally, Joshua's takedown defense is significantly better than Brandon's takedown accuracy, suggesting that Brandon might struggle to take the fight to the ground.