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Jhonata Diniz vs Alvin Hines

Heavyweight · Prelims · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira

FINAL: Jhonata Diniz by U-DEC
Jhonata Diniz
Jhonata Diniz
Age 34 · Elo 1520
LWW
223 days since last fight
vs
Alvin Hines
Alvin Hines
Age 33 · Elo 1482*
No UFC fights on record

Who wins, by source

Jhonata DinizAlvin Hines
Claude Claude: Jhonata Diniz 75% Claude: Alvin Hines 25% 75% 25% GPT GPT: Jhonata Diniz 85% GPT: Alvin Hines 15% 85% 15% Elo Elo: Jhonata Diniz 55% Elo: Alvin Hines 45% 55% 45%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Jhonata DinizAlvin Hines
Strikes landed / min Jhonata Diniz Strikes landed / min: 3.89 3.89 Alvin Hines Strikes landed / min: no data - Strikes absorbed / min Jhonata Diniz Strikes absorbed / min: 3.62 3.62 Alvin Hines Strikes absorbed / min: no data - Striking accuracy Jhonata Diniz Striking accuracy: 56% 56% Alvin Hines Striking accuracy: 0% 0% Striking defense Jhonata Diniz Striking defense: 56% 56% Alvin Hines Striking defense: 0% 0% Takedowns / 15 min Jhonata Diniz Takedowns / 15 min: 0.00 0.00 Alvin Hines Takedowns / 15 min: no data - Takedown defense Jhonata Diniz Takedown defense: 70% 70% Alvin Hines Takedown defense: 0% 0% Sub attempts / 15 min Jhonata Diniz Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0 Alvin Hines Sub attempts / 15 min: no data -

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 65% 65% Claude: Submission 5% Claude: Decision 30% 30%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 70% 70% GPT: Submission 0% GPT: Decision 30% 30%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Jhonata Diniz by KO/TKO, 75% confidence

Diniz brings significant striking advantages with a 4.09 SLPM and +1.34 striking differential, while Hines is making his UFC debut with limited data. Diniz has shown moderate upward trajectory with two recent wins including a KO/TKO victory in April 2024. His orthodox stance and 79" reach provide physical advantages that complement his high-volume striking approach. While Diniz's November 2024 loss raises questions, his 53% striking accuracy and 55% striking defense suggest technical proficiency that should overwhelm the less experienced Hines in the heavyweight division where finishing opportunities present themselves frequently.

GPT
Jhonata Diniz by KO/TKO, 85% confidence

Jhonata Diniz has a significantly higher striking accuracy and volume, as well as a superior defensive efficiency. Alvin Hines has no recorded stats, suggesting this may be his first professional fight or he has not had notable performances in the past.