Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Pantoja holds a significant historical edge over Kara-France, having performed better against 7 of their 8 common opponents (87.5% win rate vs 50%). While Kara-France possesses superior striking defense (65% vs Pantoja's 50%) and a better striking differential (+1.34 vs Pantoja's +0.44), Pantoja's grappling advantage is decisive. Pantoja averages 2.61 takedowns per fight compared to Kara-France's 0.61, and his submission threat (0.8 per fight) adds a dimension Kara-France lacks. Pantoja's consistent high-level performances against elite competition, including a current 5-fight win streak, demonstrate his championship-level skills. Kara-France's takedown defense (88%) will make this competitive, but Pantoja's pressure fighting style, volume striking (4.41 SLPM), and phase-shifting abilities will likely earn him a decision victory in a competitive fight.

Pantoja has a higher win rate and effective strike rate, and has performed better against common opponents. Pantoja also has a stronger takedown game which could lead to control of the fight.