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UFC 317: Topuria vs. OliveiraFlyweightMain card
Alexandre PantojaWINNER
Alexandre
Pantoja
13-3UFC
35 yrsElo 1631
VS
Kai Kara-France
Kai
Kara-France
8-4UFC
32 yrsElo 1554
Final: Alexandre Pantoja by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Who wins
Claude
70%
Pantoja
GPT
60%
Pantoja
Elo
61%
Pantoja
1631 vs 1554
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'5" Height 5'4"
67" Reach 69"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
4.38 Landed / min 4.56
3.88 Absorbed / minlower better 3.22
50% Strike accuracy 39%
49% Strike defense 65%
2.79 Takedowns / 15 0.61
47% TD accuracy 33%
69% TD defense 88%
1.0 Subs / 15 0.0
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 15%Claude: Submission 25%Claude: Decision 60%
60%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 15%Submission 25%Decision 60%
GPT: KO/TKO 20%GPT: Submission 10%GPT: Decision 70%
70%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 20%Submission 10%Decision 70%
Formnewest first
Alexandre Pantoja202 days out
W
Kai Asakura
SUB Rear Naked Choke · 2024-12-07
W
Brandon Royval
U-DEC · 2023-12-16
W
Steve Erceg
U-DEC · 2023-12-09
W
Brandon Moreno
S-DEC · 2023-07-08
W
Alex Perez
SUB · 2022-07-30
Kai Kara-France475 days out
W
Steve Erceg
KO/TKO · 2024-03-09
L
Amir Albazi
S-DEC · 2023-06-03
L
Brandon Moreno
KO/TKO · 2022-07-30
W
Askar Askarov
U-DEC · 2022-03-26
W
Cody Garbrandt
KO/TKO · 2021-12-11
Why
Claude
Alexandre Pantoja
70% · Decision
  • Pantoja has performed better against 7 of 8 common opponents (87.5% win rate vs Kara-France's 50%)
  • Pantoja's grappling advantage (2.61 TD avg vs 0.61) provides a crucial path to victory
  • Pantoja's 5-fight win streak against elite competition shows championship-level consistency
  • Pantoja's ability to seamlessly transition between striking and grappling will neutralize Kara-France's striking advantage
Write-up

Pantoja holds a significant historical edge over Kara-France, having performed better against 7 of their 8 common opponents (87.5% win rate vs 50%). While Kara-France possesses superior striking defense (65% vs Pantoja's 50%) and a better striking differential (+1.34 vs Pantoja's +0.44), Pantoja's grappling advantage is decisive. Pantoja averages 2.61 takedowns per fight compared to Kara-France's 0.61, and his submission threat (0.8 per fight) adds a dimension Kara-France lacks. Pantoja's consistent high-level performances against elite competition, including a current 5-fight win streak, demonstrate his championship-level skills. Kara-France's takedown defense (88%) will make this competitive, but Pantoja's pressure fighting style, volume striking (4.41 SLPM), and phase-shifting abilities will likely earn him a decision victory in a competitive fight.

GPT
Alexandre Pantoja
60% · Decision
  • Common opponents performance
  • Effective strike rate
  • Takedown accuracy
Write-up

Pantoja has a higher win rate and effective strike rate, and has performed better against common opponents. Pantoja also has a stronger takedown game which could lead to control of the fight.