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Serghei Spivac vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Heavyweight · Prelims · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2

Serghei Spivac
Serghei Spivac
Age 30 · Elo 1560
LWLWW
139 days since last fight
vs
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Age 33 · Elo 1564
WWWLW
510 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Serghei SpivacWaldo Cortes-Acosta
Claude Claude: Serghei Spivac 65% Claude: Waldo Cortes-Acosta 35% 65% 35% GPT GPT: Serghei Spivac 35% GPT: Waldo Cortes-Acosta 65% 35% 65% Elo Elo: Serghei Spivac 49% Elo: Waldo Cortes-Acosta 51% 49% 51%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Serghei SpivacWaldo Cortes-Acosta
Strikes landed / min Serghei Spivac Strikes landed / min: 3.57 3.57 Waldo Cortes-Acosta Strikes landed / min: 5.64 5.64 Strikes absorbed / min Serghei Spivac Strikes absorbed / min: 4.23 4.23 Waldo Cortes-Acosta Strikes absorbed / min: 3.60 3.60 Striking accuracy Serghei Spivac Striking accuracy: 47% 47% Waldo Cortes-Acosta Striking accuracy: 48% 48% Striking defense Serghei Spivac Striking defense: 52% 52% Waldo Cortes-Acosta Striking defense: 52% 52% Takedowns / 15 min Serghei Spivac Takedowns / 15 min: 3.82 3.82 Waldo Cortes-Acosta Takedowns / 15 min: 0.55 0.55 Takedown defense Serghei Spivac Takedown defense: 63% 63% Waldo Cortes-Acosta Takedown defense: 60% 60% Sub attempts / 15 min Serghei Spivac Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.5 0.5 Waldo Cortes-Acosta Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.2 0.2

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 40% 40% Claude: Decision 35% 35%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 25% 25% GPT: Submission 10% 10% GPT: Decision 65% 65%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Serghei Spivac by Submission, 65% confidence

Spivac possesses a significant grappling advantage that should prove decisive against Cortes-Acosta's striking-heavy approach. While Cortes-Acosta has the superior striking metrics (5.64 SLPM vs 3.51 SLPM) and a +2.04 striking differential, Spivac's wrestling credentials (4.63 TDAvg, 65% TDAcc) create a clear path to victory. Cortes-Acosta's 60% TDD will be severely tested against Spivac's relentless takedown attempts. Spivac has demonstrated his submission prowess with recent wins via this method, including his March 2024 victory. The stylistic clash favors Spivac as a grappler against Cortes-Acosta's striking preference, especially considering Cortes-Acosta's limited submission defense and ground game development.

GPT
Waldo Cortes-Acosta by Decision, 65% confidence

Cortes-Acosta has a higher strike rate and a better defensive efficiency. While Spivac has a higher takedown average, Cortes-Acosta's takedown defense should mitigate this advantage. Both fighters have a similar striker style, but Cortes-Acosta's volume and accuracy give him the edge in a likely stand-up battle.