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Quillan Salkilld vs Yanal Ashmouz

Lightweight · Prelims · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2

FINAL: Quillan Salkilld by U-DEC
Quillan Salkilld
Quillan Salkilld
Age 25 · Elo 1565*
W
118 days since last fight
vs
Yanal Ashmouz
Yanal Ashmouz
Age 30 · Elo 1505*
WLW
441 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Quillan SalkilldYanal Ashmouz
Claude Claude: Quillan Salkilld 60% Claude: Yanal Ashmouz 40% 60% 40% GPT GPT: Quillan Salkilld 65% GPT: Yanal Ashmouz 35% 65% 35% Elo Elo: Quillan Salkilld 59% Elo: Yanal Ashmouz 41% 59% 41%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Quillan SalkilldYanal Ashmouz
Strikes landed / min Quillan Salkilld Strikes landed / min: 5.40 5.40 Yanal Ashmouz Strikes landed / min: 2.94 2.94 Strikes absorbed / min Quillan Salkilld Strikes absorbed / min: 4.27 4.27 Yanal Ashmouz Strikes absorbed / min: 4.54 4.54 Striking accuracy Quillan Salkilld Striking accuracy: 55% 55% Yanal Ashmouz Striking accuracy: 50% 50% Striking defense Quillan Salkilld Striking defense: 43% 43% Yanal Ashmouz Striking defense: 55% 55% Takedowns / 15 min Quillan Salkilld Takedowns / 15 min: 9.00 9.00 Yanal Ashmouz Takedowns / 15 min: 4.80 4.80 Takedown defense Quillan Salkilld Takedown defense: 100% 100% Yanal Ashmouz Takedown defense: 60% 60% Sub attempts / 15 min Quillan Salkilld Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.0 1.0 Yanal Ashmouz Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 20% 20% Claude: Decision 55% 55%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 20% 20% GPT: Submission 10% 10% GPT: Decision 70% 70%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Quillan Salkilld by Decision, 60% confidence

Salkilld's superior physical attributes (3-inch height and 6-inch reach advantage) combined with his high-volume striking (5.4 SLPM vs Ashmouz's 2.94) create a significant edge in this matchup. While Ashmouz has more UFC experience and a 75% win rate, his negative strike differential (-1.6) suggests vulnerability against volume strikers. Both fighters have strong grappling credentials, but Salkilld's perfect 100% takedown defense could neutralize Ashmouz's 4.8 takedowns per fight. Salkilld's submission threat (1.0 SubAvg) adds another dimension Ashmouz must respect. The physical advantages and more diverse offensive arsenal favor Salkilld in what should be a competitive but clear decision.

GPT
Quillan Salkilld by Decision, 65% confidence

Quillan Salkilld has superior striking, landing more strikes per minute and having a higher striking accuracy. Additionally, Salkilld's takedown average and defense are significantly higher, suggesting a strong grappling game. However, Ashmouz's win rate and defensive efficiency should not be underestimated.