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UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2LightweightPrelims
Quillan SalkilldWINNER
Quillan
Salkilld
1-0UFC
25 yrsElo 1565*
VS
Yanal Ashmouz
Yanal
Ashmouz
2-1UFC
30 yrsElo 1505*
Final: Quillan Salkilld by U-DEC
Who wins
Claude
60%
Salkilld
GPT
65%
Salkilld
Elo
59%
Salkilld
1565 vs 1505
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'0" Height 5'9"
75" Reach 69"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
5.40 Landed / min 2.94
4.27 Absorbed / minlower better 4.54
55% Strike accuracy 50%
43% Strike defense 55%
9.00 Takedowns / 15 4.80
40% TD accuracy 50%
100% TD defense 60%
1.0 Subs / 15 0.0
Small sample: Quillan Salkilld, 1 UFC fight.
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 25%Claude: Submission 20%Claude: Decision 55%
55%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 25%Submission 20%Decision 55%
GPT: KO/TKO 20%GPT: Submission 10%GPT: Decision 70%
70%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 20%Submission 10%Decision 70%
Formnewest first
Quillan Salkilld118 days out
W
Anshul Jubli
KO/TKO Punch · 2025-02-08
Yanal Ashmouz441 days out
W
Trevor Peek
U-DEC · 2024-03-23
L
Chris Duncan
U-DEC · 2023-07-22
W
Sam Patterson
KO/TKO · 2023-03-18
Why
Claude
Quillan Salkilld
60% · Decision
  • 6-inch reach advantage for Salkilld will be crucial for distance management
  • Salkilld's 5.4 SLPM vs Ashmouz's 2.94 indicates significant volume differential
  • 100% takedown defense from Salkilld neutralizes Ashmouz's primary path to victory
  • Ashmouz's negative strike differential (-1.6) suggests vulnerability to Salkilld's high output
Write-up

Salkilld's superior physical attributes (3-inch height and 6-inch reach advantage) combined with his high-volume striking (5.4 SLPM vs Ashmouz's 2.94) create a significant edge in this matchup. While Ashmouz has more UFC experience and a 75% win rate, his negative strike differential (-1.6) suggests vulnerability against volume strikers. Both fighters have strong grappling credentials, but Salkilld's perfect 100% takedown defense could neutralize Ashmouz's 4.8 takedowns per fight. Salkilld's submission threat (1.0 SubAvg) adds another dimension Ashmouz must respect. The physical advantages and more diverse offensive arsenal favor Salkilld in what should be a competitive but clear decision.

GPT
Quillan Salkilld
65% · Decision
  • Striking volume
  • Takedown defense
  • Striking accuracy
Write-up

Quillan Salkilld has superior striking, landing more strikes per minute and having a higher striking accuracy. Additionally, Salkilld's takedown average and defense are significantly higher, suggesting a strong grappling game. However, Ashmouz's win rate and defensive efficiency should not be underestimated.