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Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O'Malley

Bantamweight · Main card · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2

FINAL: Merab Dvalishvili by SUB Guillotine Choke
Merab Dvalishvili
Merab Dvalishvili
Age 34 · Elo 1660
WWWWW
139 days since last fight
vs
Sean O'Malley
Sean O'Malley
Age 30 · Elo 1602
LWWWL
434 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Merab DvalishviliSean O'Malley
Claude Claude: Merab Dvalishvili 72% Claude: Sean O'Malley 28% 72% 28% GPT GPT: Merab Dvalishvili 70% GPT: Sean O'Malley 30% 70% 30% Elo Elo: Merab Dvalishvili 58% Elo: Sean O'Malley 42% 58% 42%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Merab DvalishviliSean O'Malley
Strikes landed / min Merab Dvalishvili Strikes landed / min: 4.31 4.31 Sean O'Malley Strikes landed / min: 6.70 6.70 Strikes absorbed / min Merab Dvalishvili Strikes absorbed / min: 2.48 2.48 Sean O'Malley Strikes absorbed / min: 3.48 3.48 Striking accuracy Merab Dvalishvili Striking accuracy: 42% 42% Sean O'Malley Striking accuracy: 61% 61% Striking defense Merab Dvalishvili Striking defense: 56% 56% Sean O'Malley Striking defense: 60% 60% Takedowns / 15 min Merab Dvalishvili Takedowns / 15 min: 5.84 5.84 Sean O'Malley Takedowns / 15 min: 0.29 0.29 Takedown defense Merab Dvalishvili Takedown defense: 82% 82% Sean O'Malley Takedown defense: 61% 61% Sub attempts / 15 min Merab Dvalishvili Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3 Sean O'Malley Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 10% 10% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 75% 75%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 20% 20% GPT: Submission 10% 10% GPT: Decision 70% 70%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Merab Dvalishvili by Decision, 72% confidence

Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling and cardio present a significant stylistic challenge for O'Malley. While O'Malley has superior striking metrics (6.7 SLPM vs 4.35, 61% accuracy vs 42%), Merab's 6.09 takedowns per fight will likely neutralize O'Malley's range control. O'Malley's 61% TDD will be tested against Merab's volume wrestling approach. In their first encounter, Merab's pressure proved effective, and O'Malley has historically struggled against high-level grapplers who can close distance. Merab's cardio advantage will become more pronounced in championship rounds, allowing him to maintain his wrestling pressure throughout the full 25 minutes.

GPT
Merab Dvalishvili by Decision, 70% confidence

Merab Dvalishvili is expected to win due to his superior takedown average and defense. His striking accuracy and defense are also noteworthy. While Sean O'Malley shows a higher striking volume and accuracy, his takedown defense is lower, which could lead to him being controlled on the ground by Dvalishvili.