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UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2BantamweightMain card
Merab DvalishviliWINNER
Merab
Dvalishvili
12-2UFC
34 yrsElo 1647
VS
Sean O'Malley
Sean
O'Malley
10-3UFC
30 yrsElo 1602
Final: Merab Dvalishvili by SUB Guillotine Choke
Who wins
Claude
72%
Dvalishvili
GPT
70%
Dvalishvili
Elo
56%
Dvalishvili
1647 vs 1602
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
5'6" Height 5'11"
68" Reach 72"
Orthodox Stance Switch
4.31 Landed / min 6.70
2.48 Absorbed / minlower better 3.48
42% Strike accuracy 61%
56% Strike defense 60%
5.84 Takedowns / 15 0.29
35% TD accuracy 42%
82% TD defense 61%
0.3 Subs / 15 0.3
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 10%Claude: Submission 15%Claude: Decision 75%
75%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 10%Submission 15%Decision 75%
GPT: KO/TKO 20%GPT: Submission 10%GPT: Decision 70%
70%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 20%Submission 10%Decision 70%
Formnewest first
Merab Dvalishvili139 days out
W
Umar Nurmagomedov
U-DEC · 2025-01-18
W
Sean O'Malley
U-DEC · 2024-03-30
W
Henry Cejudo
U-DEC · 2024-02-17
W
Petr Yan
U-DEC · 2023-03-11
W
Jose Aldo
U-DEC · 2022-08-20
Sean O'Malley434 days out
L
Merab Dvalishvili
U-DEC · 2024-03-30
W
Marlon Vera
U-DEC · 2024-03-09
W
Aljamain Sterling
KO/TKO · 2023-08-19
W
Petr Yan
S-DEC · 2022-10-22
L
Pedro Munhoz
CNC · 2022-07-02
Why
Claude
Merab Dvalishvili
72% · Decision
  • Takedown differential: Merab averages 6.09 TDs per fight vs O'Malley's 0.29
  • Striking defense disparity: O'Malley's 60% defense vs Merab's pressure-heavy 4.35 SLPM
  • Cardio advantage: Merab's consistent wrestling pace through 5 rounds vs O'Malley's primarily 3-round experience
  • Style matchup: Merab's pressure wrestling negates O'Malley's preferred range striking
Write-up

Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling and cardio present a significant stylistic challenge for O'Malley. While O'Malley has superior striking metrics (6.7 SLPM vs 4.35, 61% accuracy vs 42%), Merab's 6.09 takedowns per fight will likely neutralize O'Malley's range control. O'Malley's 61% TDD will be tested against Merab's volume wrestling approach. In their first encounter, Merab's pressure proved effective, and O'Malley has historically struggled against high-level grapplers who can close distance. Merab's cardio advantage will become more pronounced in championship rounds, allowing him to maintain his wrestling pressure throughout the full 25 minutes.

GPT
Merab Dvalishvili
70% · Decision
  • Takedown Defense
  • Striking Accuracy
  • Striking Volume
Write-up

Merab Dvalishvili is expected to win due to his superior takedown average and defense. His striking accuracy and defense are also noteworthy. While Sean O'Malley shows a higher striking volume and accuracy, his takedown defense is lower, which could lead to him being controlled on the ground by Dvalishvili.