Fight Genie logo Fight Genie
Back to the card

Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix

Bantamweight · Main card · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2

FINAL: Mario Bautista by U-DEC
Mario Bautista
Mario Bautista
Age 31 · Elo 1607
WWWWW
420 days since last fight
vs
Patchy Mix
Patchy Mix
Age 31 · Elo 1466*
No UFC fights on record

Who wins, by source

Mario BautistaPatchy Mix
Claude Claude: Mario Bautista 65% Claude: Patchy Mix 35% 65% 35% GPT GPT: Mario Bautista 75% GPT: Patchy Mix 25% 75% 25% Elo Elo: Mario Bautista 69% Elo: Patchy Mix 31% 69% 31%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Mario BautistaPatchy Mix
Strikes landed / min Mario Bautista Strikes landed / min: 5.33 5.33 Patchy Mix Strikes landed / min: no data - Strikes absorbed / min Mario Bautista Strikes absorbed / min: 3.91 3.91 Patchy Mix Strikes absorbed / min: no data - Striking accuracy Mario Bautista Striking accuracy: 47% 47% Patchy Mix Striking accuracy: 0% 0% Striking defense Mario Bautista Striking defense: 54% 54% Patchy Mix Striking defense: 0% 0% Takedowns / 15 min Mario Bautista Takedowns / 15 min: 1.92 1.92 Patchy Mix Takedowns / 15 min: no data - Takedown defense Mario Bautista Takedown defense: 66% 66% Patchy Mix Takedown defense: 0% 0% Sub attempts / 15 min Mario Bautista Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.9 0.9 Patchy Mix Sub attempts / 15 min: no data -

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 60% 60%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 20% 20% GPT: Submission 10% 10% GPT: Decision 70% 70%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Mario Bautista by Decision, 65% confidence

Bautista brings UFC-proven striking volume (5.33 SLPM) and well-rounded skills against Mix's UFC debut. While Mix has elite submission skills from his Bellator career, Bautista's 66% takedown defense and switch stance versatility should allow him to keep the fight standing where he has the clear advantage. Bautista's recent 5-fight win streak shows consistent improvement in striking defense and grappling awareness, which will be crucial against Mix's submission threats. Mix's southpaw stance may create interesting angles initially, but Bautista's experience against diverse opponents and higher striking output should earn him a competitive decision.

GPT
Mario Bautista by Decision, 75% confidence

Mario Bautista has a significant advantage in both striking and grappling statistics. With Patchy Mix's lack of recorded stats, it suggests he is less experienced or less effective in fights. Bautista's superior Striking and Defense rates increase his chances of winning.