Julianna Pena vs Kayla Harrison

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Harrison brings Olympic-level grappling credentials and superior physical attributes to this matchup. Her striking differential (+3.68 vs Pena's +0.72) and defensive metrics (64% vs 57%) give her a clear advantage on the feet. While Pena has shown tremendous heart and durability, Harrison's 100% TDD will likely prevent Pena from implementing her preferred top position game. Harrison's striking volume (4.87 SLPM vs Pena's 3.25) and significantly better striking defense will allow her to control distance and pace. Pena's poor 23% TDD will be exploited by Harrison's Olympic Judo background, allowing Harrison to dictate where the fight takes place. Harrison's recent form shows consistent improvement in her striking game to complement her world-class grappling.

Harrison's superior striking accuracy and volume, combined with her perfect takedown defense, should allow her to control the fight and outscore Pena.