Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Pyfer brings significant physical advantages to this matchup with his 5-inch height and 4-inch reach advantage over Gastelum. While their striking volume is nearly identical (Gastelum 3.74 vs Pyfer 3.72 SLPM), Pyfer's finishing ability and power give him an edge. Gastelum has the superior striking defense (57% vs 51%), but has shown vulnerability to power punchers throughout his career. Pyfer's recent form shows 3 finishes in his last 5 fights, demonstrating superior finishing ability. Gastelum's inconsistent weight management (fluctuating between welterweight and middleweight) suggests potential physical disadvantages against the naturally larger Pyfer. The southpaw vs orthodox matchup favors Pyfer's power right hand against Gastelum's defensive tendencies.

Joe Pyfer has a higher win rate and performs well against opponents with similar styles to Kelvin Gastelum. Despite a similar striking volume and accuracy, Pyfer's higher takedown average and submission average could be key in a close fight.