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UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2FlyweightPrelims
Bruno Silva
Bruno
Silva
8-10UFC
35 yrsElo 1500
VS
Joshua VanWINNER
Joshua
Van
6-1UFC
23 yrsElo 1637
Final: Joshua Van by KO/TKO Punches
Who wins
Claude
75%
Van
GPT
70%
Van
Elo
69%
Van
1500 vs 1637
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'0" Height 5'5"
74" Reach 65"
Orthodox Stance Orthodox
4.12 Landed / min 8.39
5.45 Absorbed / minlower better 6.09
49% Strike accuracy 53%
41% Strike defense 58%
0.93 Takedowns / 15 1.62
27% TD accuracy 63%
73% TD defense 83%
0.0 Subs / 15 0.0
How it ends
Claude: KO/TKO 20%Claude: Submission 5%Claude: Decision 75%
75%Decision
Claude calls Decision
KO/TKO 20%Submission 5%Decision 75%
GPT: KO/TKO 30%GPT: Submission 10%GPT: Decision 60%
60%Decision
GPT calls Decision
KO/TKO 30%Submission 10%Decision 60%
Formnewest first
Bruno Silva28 days out
L
Marc-Andre Barriault
KO/TKO Elbows · 2025-05-10
L
Manel Kape
KO/TKO Punches · 2024-12-14
L
Chris Weidman
U-DEC · 2024-03-30
W
Cody Durden
KO/TKO · 2024-02-10
L
Shara Magomedov
U-DEC · 2023-10-21
Joshua Van90 days out
W
Rei Tsuruya
U-DEC · 2025-03-08
W
Cody Durden
U-DEC · 2024-12-07
W
Edgar Chairez
U-DEC · 2024-03-30
L
Charles Johnson
KO/TKO · 2024-02-03
W
Felipe Bunes
KO/TKO · 2024-01-13
Why
Claude
Joshua Van
75% · Decision
  • Van's massive striking volume advantage (8.39 SLPM vs 4.12 SLPM)
  • Van's superior striking defense (58% vs 41%) will lead to significant damage differential
  • Van's takedown accuracy (63% vs 27%) provides control options if needed
  • Silva's inconsistent weight class history vs Van's flyweight consistency
Write-up

Van holds significant statistical advantages across multiple dimensions. His striking volume (8.39 SLPM vs Silva's 4.12) and accuracy (53% vs 49%) give him a clear edge in the stand-up exchanges. Van's defense is also markedly better at 58% compared to Silva's 41%, suggesting Silva will absorb significantly more damage. In the grappling department, Van's takedown accuracy (63% vs 27%) and takedown defense (83% vs 73%) further cement his advantage. Silva's inconsistent weight class history (moving between middleweight and flyweight) contrasts with Van's consistent flyweight competition. Van's recent form shows improvement with back-to-back decision wins, while Silva has alternated between wins and losses. The volume differential will be the deciding factor as Van outworks Silva to a clear decision victory.

GPT
Joshua Van
70% · Decision
  • Higher SLPM
  • Better Takedown Accuracy
  • Better Takedown Defense
Write-up

Joshua Van has a higher strike rate and better takedown accuracy and defense. His overall win rate is also higher.