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Ariane da Silva vs Wang Cong

Women's Flyweight · Prelims · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2

FINAL: Wang Cong by U-DEC
Ariane da Silva
Ariane da Silva
Age 31 · Elo 1497
LWWWL
406 days since last fight
vs
Wang Cong
Wang Cong
Age 33 · Elo 1590
WWW
118 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Ariane da SilvaWang Cong
Claude Claude: Ariane da Silva 25% Claude: Wang Cong 75% 25% 75% GPT GPT: Ariane da Silva 20% GPT: Wang Cong 80% 20% 80% Elo Elo: Ariane da Silva 37% Elo: Wang Cong 63% 37% 63%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Ariane da SilvaWang Cong
Strikes landed / min Ariane da Silva Strikes landed / min: 4.05 4.05 Wang Cong Strikes landed / min: 7.07 7.07 Strikes absorbed / min Ariane da Silva Strikes absorbed / min: 4.40 4.40 Wang Cong Strikes absorbed / min: 0.73 0.73 Striking accuracy Ariane da Silva Striking accuracy: 41% 41% Wang Cong Striking accuracy: 59% 59% Striking defense Ariane da Silva Striking defense: 50% 50% Wang Cong Striking defense: 76% 76% Takedowns / 15 min Ariane da Silva Takedowns / 15 min: 0.47 0.47 Wang Cong Takedowns / 15 min: 3.66 3.66 Takedown defense Ariane da Silva Takedown defense: 68% 68% Wang Cong Takedown defense: 0% 0% Sub attempts / 15 min Ariane da Silva Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3 Wang Cong Sub attempts / 15 min: 7.3 7.3

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 55% 55% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 30% 30%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 20% 20% GPT: Submission 60% 60% GPT: Decision 20% 20%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Wang Cong by KO/TKO, 75% confidence

Wang Cong presents a rare combination of statistical dominance that should overwhelm da Silva. Wang's striking metrics are exceptional (7.07 SLPM with 59% accuracy vs da Silva's 4.1 SLPM with 41% accuracy), creating a massive +6.34 striking differential compared to da Silva's marginal +0.14. Wang's defensive prowess (76% strike defense vs da Silva's 53%) further widens this gap. While da Silva has more UFC experience, Wang's perfect 100% takedown accuracy and 3.66 TDAvg suggest she can dictate where the fight takes place. Wang's southpaw stance will create additional challenges for da Silva, who has struggled against high-volume strikers. Wang's recent form shows devastating finishing ability with consecutive KO/TKO victories, while da Silva is coming off a decision loss in April 2024.

GPT
Wang Cong by Submission, 80% confidence

Wang Cong has superior striking and grappling stats. She lands more strikes per minute and absorbs fewer strikes per minute. Additionally, her takedown average and submission average are significantly higher than Ariane da Silva's.