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Valentina Shevchenko vs Manon Fiorot

Women's Flyweight · Main card · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena

FINAL: Valentina Shevchenko by U-DEC
Valentina Shevchenko
Valentina Shevchenko
Age 37 · Elo 1646
WLLWW
406 days since last fight
vs
Manon Fiorot
Manon Fiorot
Age 35 · Elo 1612
WWWWW
406 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Valentina ShevchenkoManon Fiorot
Claude Claude: Valentina Shevchenko 60% Claude: Manon Fiorot 40% 60% 40% GPT GPT: Valentina Shevchenko 65% GPT: Manon Fiorot 35% 65% 35% Elo Elo: Valentina Shevchenko 55% Elo: Manon Fiorot 45% 55% 45%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Valentina ShevchenkoManon Fiorot
Strikes landed / min Valentina Shevchenko Strikes landed / min: 3.16 3.16 Manon Fiorot Strikes landed / min: 5.66 5.66 Strikes absorbed / min Valentina Shevchenko Strikes absorbed / min: 2.00 2.00 Manon Fiorot Strikes absorbed / min: 3.58 3.58 Striking accuracy Valentina Shevchenko Striking accuracy: 52% 52% Manon Fiorot Striking accuracy: 42% 42% Striking defense Valentina Shevchenko Striking defense: 64% 64% Manon Fiorot Striking defense: 66% 66% Takedowns / 15 min Valentina Shevchenko Takedowns / 15 min: 2.74 2.74 Manon Fiorot Takedowns / 15 min: 1.05 1.05 Takedown defense Valentina Shevchenko Takedown defense: 71% 71% Manon Fiorot Takedown defense: 87% 87% Sub attempts / 15 min Valentina Shevchenko Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3 Manon Fiorot Sub attempts / 15 min: no data -

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 20% 20% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 65% 65%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 25% 25% GPT: Submission 10% 10% GPT: Decision 65% 65%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Valentina Shevchenko by Decision, 60% confidence

Despite Fiorot's impressive striking volume (6.26 SLPM vs Shevchenko's 3.16) and recent win streak, Shevchenko's technical diversity and championship experience will be decisive factors. Shevchenko holds significant advantages in takedown accuracy (64% vs 42%) and overall grappling efficiency, which will allow her to dictate where the fight takes place. While Fiorot has excellent takedown defense (93%), Shevchenko's elite timing and setups will still find success in securing control time. Shevchenko's southpaw stance against Fiorot's orthodox creates favorable angles for her counter-striking game. Though Fiorot has shown improved striking defense (68% vs Shevchenko's 64%), Valentina's championship experience and ability to make mid-fight adjustments will be crucial in a competitive but ultimately Shevchenko-favored decision.

GPT
Valentina Shevchenko by Decision, 65% confidence

Shevchenko has a better takedown average and accuracy, which could play a significant role in the fight. She also has a higher striking defense and overall defensive efficiency, indicating that she can potentially avoid damage better than Fiorot.