Valentina Shevchenko vs Manon Fiorot
Women's Flyweight · Main card · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
Who wins, by source
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
Despite Fiorot's impressive striking volume (6.26 SLPM vs Shevchenko's 3.16) and recent win streak, Shevchenko's technical diversity and championship experience will be decisive factors. Shevchenko holds significant advantages in takedown accuracy (64% vs 42%) and overall grappling efficiency, which will allow her to dictate where the fight takes place. While Fiorot has excellent takedown defense (93%), Shevchenko's elite timing and setups will still find success in securing control time. Shevchenko's southpaw stance against Fiorot's orthodox creates favorable angles for her counter-striking game. Though Fiorot has shown improved striking defense (68% vs Shevchenko's 64%), Valentina's championship experience and ability to make mid-fight adjustments will be crucial in a competitive but ultimately Shevchenko-favored decision.
Shevchenko has a better takedown average and accuracy, which could play a significant role in the fight. She also has a higher striking defense and overall defensive efficiency, indicating that she can potentially avoid damage better than Fiorot.