Jessica Andrade vs Jasmine Jasudavicius
Women's Flyweight · Prelims · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
Who wins, by source
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
This women's flyweight bout features a classic power vs. size dynamic. Despite giving up 6 inches in both height and reach, Andrade's exceptional volume (6.44 SLPM vs. Jasudavicius' 3.71) and power advantage should be the difference maker. Andrade's experience edge is massive, having faced elite competition across three weight classes. While Jasudavicius has the physical dimensions to keep Andrade at range, her striking defense (51%) is vulnerable to Andrade's high-pressure style and power shots. Jasudavicius may find early success with her reach and potentially with takedowns (2.55 per fight), but Andrade's 72% TDD and superior cardio should allow her to take over as the fight progresses. Both fighters have faced Natalia Silva, with similar decision losses, but Andrade's overall level of competition has been significantly higher.
Andrade's higher striking volume and accuracy, combined with her superior takedown accuracy and defense, make her the more likely victor. Although Jasudavicius has a higher overall win rate, the striking differential and takedown stats favor Andrade. The lack of significant data in ground control and striking effectiveness for both fighters makes it difficult to predict a finish, hence the decision prediction.