Fight Genie logo Fight Genie
Back to the card

Jessica Andrade vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

Women's Flyweight · Prelims · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena

FINAL: Jasmine Jasudavicius by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Jessica Andrade
Jessica Andrade
Age 33 · Elo 1549
WLWLL
392 days since last fight
vs
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Age 36 · Elo 1563
WLWWL
97 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Jessica AndradeJasmine Jasudavicius
Claude Claude: Jessica Andrade 70% Claude: Jasmine Jasudavicius 30% 70% 30% GPT GPT: Jessica Andrade 70% GPT: Jasmine Jasudavicius 30% 70% 30% Elo Elo: Jessica Andrade 48% Elo: Jasmine Jasudavicius 52% 48% 52%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Jessica AndradeJasmine Jasudavicius
Strikes landed / min Jessica Andrade Strikes landed / min: 6.39 6.39 Jasmine Jasudavicius Strikes landed / min: 3.47 3.47 Strikes absorbed / min Jessica Andrade Strikes absorbed / min: 5.49 5.49 Jasmine Jasudavicius Strikes absorbed / min: 3.46 3.46 Striking accuracy Jessica Andrade Striking accuracy: 50% 50% Jasmine Jasudavicius Striking accuracy: 44% 44% Striking defense Jessica Andrade Striking defense: 54% 54% Jasmine Jasudavicius Striking defense: 51% 51% Takedowns / 15 min Jessica Andrade Takedowns / 15 min: 2.21 2.21 Jasmine Jasudavicius Takedowns / 15 min: 2.63 2.63 Takedown defense Jessica Andrade Takedown defense: 71% 71% Jasmine Jasudavicius Takedown defense: 75% 75% Sub attempts / 15 min Jessica Andrade Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.3 0.3 Jasmine Jasudavicius Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.5 0.5

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 55% 55% Claude: Submission 10% 10% Claude: Decision 35% 35%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 20% 20% GPT: Submission 10% 10% GPT: Decision 70% 70%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Jessica Andrade by KO/TKO, 70% confidence

This women's flyweight bout features a classic power vs. size dynamic. Despite giving up 6 inches in both height and reach, Andrade's exceptional volume (6.44 SLPM vs. Jasudavicius' 3.71) and power advantage should be the difference maker. Andrade's experience edge is massive, having faced elite competition across three weight classes. While Jasudavicius has the physical dimensions to keep Andrade at range, her striking defense (51%) is vulnerable to Andrade's high-pressure style and power shots. Jasudavicius may find early success with her reach and potentially with takedowns (2.55 per fight), but Andrade's 72% TDD and superior cardio should allow her to take over as the fight progresses. Both fighters have faced Natalia Silva, with similar decision losses, but Andrade's overall level of competition has been significantly higher.

GPT
Jessica Andrade by Decision, 70% confidence

Andrade's higher striking volume and accuracy, combined with her superior takedown accuracy and defense, make her the more likely victor. Although Jasudavicius has a higher overall win rate, the striking differential and takedown stats favor Andrade. The lack of significant data in ground control and striking effectiveness for both fighters makes it difficult to predict a finish, hence the decision prediction.